Neil Thomas 牛犇 Profile picture
Oct 20, 2021 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Huge day for personnel politics in the Chinese Communist Party

7 province-level govs get new Party Secretaries, inc Tibet, plus new Bingtuan PS in Xinjiang

Biggest day in ages, ramping up to the 20th Party Congress in 2022

These moves show Xi Jinping's power (again!) (1/16)
Wang Junzheng 王君正 (58yo) is the new Party Secretary of Tibet

Promoted from Party Secretary of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps ("bingtuan")

Was sanctioned by US, UK, EU & Canada for human rights violations in March

Bad sign for Tibet? More XJ methods? (2/16)
More on Wang:

Worked under Li Hongzhong, Xi's ally on the Party's elite 25-member Politburo, in Hubei from 2012-2016, & under Chen Quanguo in XJ

Will go from non-voting alternate to full Central Committee member next year & young enough to get on Politburo in 2027 (3/16)
Xu Qin 许勤 (60) is the new Party Secretary of Heilongjiang

Promoted from Governor of Hebei

Served in NDRC hi-tech depts for 21yrs (worked with Xi allies Liu He & Guo Shuqing). Shenzhen mayor 2010-17. Can his tech focus help the rust belt?

Full Central Committee member (4/16)
Zhang Qingwei 张庆伟 (60) is the new Party Secretary of Henan

Moved from being Party Secretary of Heilongjiang

Aerospace technocrat for 29 years before Hebei Governor 2011-17. Deep ties to rest of "aerospace gang" Xi has promoted recently

Full Central Committee member (5/16)
Wu Zhenglong 吴政隆 (56) is the new Party Secretary of Jiangsu

Promoted from Governor of Jiangsu

15 years in industrial policy agencies, 15 years in Chongqing local gov (under Bo Xilai & Sun Zhengcai!)

Full Central Committee member, young enough for Politburo in 2027 (6/16)
Yi Lianhong 易炼红 (62) is the new Party Secretary of Jiangxi

Promoted from Governor of Jiangxi

Local government cadre in his native Hunan for 25 years and a brief stint in Liaoning as Shenyang mayor

May go from alternate to full Central Committee member next year (7/16)
Liu Ning 刘宁 (59) is the new Party Secretary of Guangxi

Promoted from Governor of Liaoning, a role he got 14 months ago

Overlapped with Xi & Chen Xi at Tsinghua; Water engineer & vice-minister 34yrs; Qinghai Gov

Will go from alternate to full Central Committee member (8/16)
Wang Ning 王宁 (60) is the new Party Secretary of Yunnan

Promoted from Governor of Fujian, a role he got 13 months ago

Worked at housing ministry for 16+ yrs then in Fujian gov since 2015

Will go from alternate to full Central Committee member next year (9/16)
Li Yifei 李邑飞 (57) is the new Party Secretary of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps ("bingtuan")

First ministerial-level post, promoted from Director of Xinjiang CCP Organization Dept

Cadre in native Yunnan for 32 years & Guizhou

Central Committee in 2022 (10/16)
Xu Kunlin 许昆林 (56) is the new Governor of Jiangsu ("acting" for now)

First ministerial-level post, promoted from Party Secretary of Suzhou city

NDRC for 33yrs (inc Liu He overlap) then Shanghai vice mayor under Xi ally Li Qiang 2017-20

Central Committee seat in 2022 (11/16)
New appointees all replace leaders who are retiring or promoted, so no purge here

Wu Yingjie, Lou Qinjian, Xu Dazhe, Lu Xinhse turned 65 this year, the retirement age for provincial-ministerial level cadres

Liu Qi & Ruan Chengfa turned 64 & seem to be being eased out (12/16)
What provincial leadership posts are now vacant?

-Fujian Governor (Wang Ning's old job)

-Hebei Governor (Xu Qin)

-Jiangxi Governor (Yi Lianhong)

-Liaoning Governor (Liu Ning)

These are the next personnel moves to watch (13/16)
BUT some clues:

Xiong Maoping 熊茂平 (54) may be next Liaoning Governor

Just promoted to Liaoning CCP standing committee from Deputy Director of State Administration for Market Regulation

If so, he is a rising star & could show SAMR becoming new political power center (14/16)
MORE clues:

Wang Zhengpu 王正谱 (58) could be the next Governor of Hebei

Just promoted to Hebei Dep PS from heading agriculture ministry bureau responsible for Xi's "rural revitalization" strategy

Used to work under Xi ally Li Xi in Liaoning when Li was PS from 2015-17 (15/16)
Quick thoughts:

-PS promotions tend to go to cadres with local gov + central agency experience, more so than for Governors, w/technocrat a bonus, see:

-Again many promoted cadres have ties to Xi or Xi allies

-Sexism: these guys are all guys! (16/16)

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More from @neilthomas123

Nov 5, 2025
Mao said China would eclipse the US by 2030

In 1955: "Our goal is to catch up with and surpass the US ... it will take at least 50 years, perhaps 75, which is 15 five-year plans"

Xi just outlined China's 15th five-year plan. Can he prove Mao right?

Latest for @AsiaPolicy

1/ Image
Probably not by the numbers—China's nominal GDP was only 64% of the US last year

But perhaps yes in substance—industrial might, tech self-reliance, and export controls helped Xi stare down US pressure this year

Chinese scholars are praising Mao's "strategic foresight"...

2/ Image
But Xi still sees Trump as an agent of chaos and is preparing for a more turbulent world

April 2: 34% tariff on China
April 8: 84%
April 9: 125%

April 10: Beijing holds a "special meeting" to adjust its five-year planning in light of "changes in the external situation"...

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 28, 2025
Everyone talks about Cai Qi. Don't forget Wang Huning.

Xi Jinping just made extra space for Wang on the drafting team for his five-year plan proposals

Wang is China's most powerful United Front boss since Deng Xiaoping left the role in 1983

Could stay past retirement age? 1/ Image
This table shows the evolution of drafting teams for plenums about five-year plans

Wang Huning is the first CPPCC Chairman (United Front boss) on such a team

He was also the first CCP Secretariat Head involved when he held that role in 2020

Becoming a constant presence.. 2/ Image
Similar thing happened at the Third Plenum last July, which decided structural reforms for 2029

Per past practice, Xi led the drafting team, with the CCP Secretariat Head (Cai Qi) and Executive Vice Premier (Ding Xuexiang) as deputies

But he added a deputy: Wang Huning.. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Oct 23, 2025
China's Fourth Plenum ends:

1. Super-low attendance suggests record purge of Central Committee

2. Near-record discipline of 10 members & 4 alternates

3. Xi affirms PLA purges by promoting discipline boss Zhang Shengmin to replace He Weidong as CMC Vice-Chair

Thoughts..

1/ Image
Communique suggests huge purge of Central Committee members beyond current rumors

Attendance was only 168/205 members and 147/171 alternates for a total of 315/376 (84%)

I believe that's a record low in the post-Mao era

"Empty chairs at empty tables" (h/t @shuizaiping2)

2/ Image
The Central Committee confirmed the expulsion of 10 members and 4 alternates

These were mostly pre-announced by the Politburo or disciplinary organs—e.g., He Weidong, Miao Hua

Almost as many disciplinary actions as the 2017 Seventh Plenum, but a new record for expulsions

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Oct 17, 2025
Big update! China just confirmed it has fired number-two general He Weidong

9 generals, inc 8 Central Committee members, expelled from the CCP

1 Politburo vacancy, 3 Central Military Commission vacancies, 11 CC vacancies

Will Xi fill them at the Fourth Plenum next week?

1/ Image
Xi may leave the Politburo and CMC depleted

No one replaced Sun Zhengcai when he was purged from the Politburo in 2017

And Xi has repeatedly declined to promote Li Shangfu's successor Dong Jun to the CMC

Absences make it easier for him to dominate and help punish the PLA

2/ Image
Still, He Weidong was the first uniformed CMC vice chair purged since the 1960s

Xi may be fine with ally Zhang Youxia as sole vice chair. Or he may want balance🤷‍♂️

But Miao Hua handled PLA loyalty, a Xi priority. @jonczin suggests some possible replacements for him:

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 15, 2025
Who has Xi purged from the CCP Central Committee?

Attendance at next week's Fourth Plenum will reveal the extent of his recent "purge surge"

If all rumors are true, only 168/205 members (82%) and 159/171 alternates (93%) will be there

And only 17/44 of PLA members (39%)!

1/ Image
Would be the sparsest plenum in recent memory

Main cause is spate of disappearances and disciplinary campaigns in the People's Liberation Army

Closest comparison I can find is the 2017 Seventh Plenum at the end of Xi's first-term crackdown (191 members and 145 alternates)

2/ Image
This year could be big drop from the 199/205 members and 165/171 alternates at the Third Plenum last July

Illness and travel explain some absences; but political trouble explains more

Some "missing" cadres may resurface, but maximum attendance will be 193/205 and 165/171

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Sep 25, 2025
"As Xi [Jinping] steps back, Li [Qiang] could emerge as an important interlocutor for governments and companies that want to engage with China, said Neil Thomas, a Chinese politics fellow at @AsiaPolicy."

Great @AP report by @kmorit

1/ Image
"Li has held talks at the U.N. this week with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Austrian Chancellor Christian Stocker."

2/
"Thomas described Li as 'an incredibly important person' to engage with during the U.N. meeting. 'He’s acting on Xi’s behalf,' he said, 'and will be able to relay messages between Xi and the world.'"

3/
Read 8 tweets

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