"Everyone wants to keep the dream of 1.5°C alive. In every practical sense you are kidding yourself if you think that we are remotely heading towards 1.5°C"
So why the optimism? #COP26
businessgreen.com/feature/403897…
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The world has made progress from where we were 10 years ago (2010), but on the “current policy scenario” emissions will continue to rise.
According to UNEP EGR, emissions will remain flattish to 2030, if governments implement the necessary policies.
unep.org/resources/emis…
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The UNFCCC Synthesis Report says NDCs will lead to a 5% rise in emissions from 2019 to 2030. This is 16% above 2010 levels, as opposed to ~50% below as required for <1.5C.
unfccc.int/news/updated-n…
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Ambition has gone up, mainly through raised ambition in the US, EU, and China (the big emitters) with minor changes from other big emitters. These ambitions need to be matched with policy. As seen in some countries, this is not easy...
unep.org/resources/emis…
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This all means the world is heading to about 2.5C in 2100, from which the temperature will keep rising after 2100.
This is not 5°C, nor 4°C, not even 3°C. But, it needs policies for that to happen. It is not a given.
carbonbrief.org/unep-current-c…
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Countries have high ambition. We have been sucked into the rhetoric of governments. If governments implement policies to mach ambition, we could be good for ~2°C. Of course, this is great, but lots needs to happen.
go.nature.com/3A3nIAs
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Optimism is high because countries are making pledges, keeping the dream alive.
If we want to solve the climate problem, what matters most is what countries are doing TODAY.
Be optimistic when meaningful policies get implemented...
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