Short THREAD:
In the JCVI minutes from 29 June, the committe had modelling evidence from TWO groups showing significant benefit in vaccinating teens - including preventing deaths.
They dismissed it.
Two models from Warwick and PHE showed "substantial reduction in hospitalisations of 12-17 year olds". Both models estimated vax would prevent 3 deaths per million kids vaxxed. (2/million in prev healthy children).
Warwick also showed LARGE REDUCTION in INFECTIONS.
The JCVI remained unmoved. They thought opportunity costs (affecting school vax progs) & potential harms from vax (although they earlier acknowledged vax myocarditis was q mild) outweighed benefit (but no numbers to support).
They also touted natural infection as better *again*
They then dismissed PIMS-TS (severe rare syndrome in kids than puts many in ICU) and Long Covid as rare. But rare with high number of infections can be significant. AND vax causes neither - so benefits here must outweigh risk - esp as vax WILL REDUCE OVERALL INFECTIONS IN KIDS.
Depsite frequently saying education not their remit, they somewhat strangely seem to say that kids getting covid is less disruptive to education (or should be less disruptive?) than vaccination?!
In 1st July minutes (pt 7), JCVI say they didn't trust the modelling because it was based on wave 2 when adults weren't vaxxed. They believed that high vax rates in adults would stop cases in children I think. We can see how that turned out.
Finally, note that the PHE model at the top assumed a 4% "attack rate" (ie 4% of kids would get infected over the time period). Since 1 Sept alone, 11% of 10-14 yrs have had a *confirmed case*. The benefits shown by the modelling would in fact have been *much higher*.
There is much more to say about the minutes & the contradictory statements that appear throughout (esp on remit). But these bits show they had modelling showing significant benefit and just dismissed it.
They worried so much about vax myocarditis & so little about covid/END
PS 29 June minutes here:
app.box.com/s/iddfb4ppwkmt…
1 July minutes here:
app.box.com/s/iddfb4ppwkmt…
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