Short THREAD:
In the JCVI minutes from 29 June, the committe had modelling evidence from TWO groups showing significant benefit in vaccinating teens - including preventing deaths.
They dismissed it.
Two models from Warwick and PHE showed "substantial reduction in hospitalisations of 12-17 year olds". Both models estimated vax would prevent 3 deaths per million kids vaxxed. (2/million in prev healthy children).
Warwick also showed LARGE REDUCTION in INFECTIONS.
The JCVI remained unmoved. They thought opportunity costs (affecting school vax progs) & potential harms from vax (although they earlier acknowledged vax myocarditis was q mild) outweighed benefit (but no numbers to support).
They also touted natural infection as better *again*
They then dismissed PIMS-TS (severe rare syndrome in kids than puts many in ICU) and Long Covid as rare. But rare with high number of infections can be significant. AND vax causes neither - so benefits here must outweigh risk - esp as vax WILL REDUCE OVERALL INFECTIONS IN KIDS.
Depsite frequently saying education not their remit, they somewhat strangely seem to say that kids getting covid is less disruptive to education (or should be less disruptive?) than vaccination?!
In 1st July minutes (pt 7), JCVI say they didn't trust the modelling because it was based on wave 2 when adults weren't vaxxed. They believed that high vax rates in adults would stop cases in children I think. We can see how that turned out.
Finally, note that the PHE model at the top assumed a 4% "attack rate" (ie 4% of kids would get infected over the time period). Since 1 Sept alone, 11% of 10-14 yrs have had a *confirmed case*. The benefits shown by the modelling would in fact have been *much higher*.
There is much more to say about the minutes & the contradictory statements that appear throughout (esp on remit). But these bits show they had modelling showing significant benefit and just dismissed it.
They worried so much about vax myocarditis & so little about covid/END
Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.
I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.
TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.
This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.
Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....
TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point
let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.
The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.
Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.
TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots
This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6