Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Nov 10 to Nov 16 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- High circul (>140 cases/100Kpop/7d): UK (R-eff=0.86); GR; AT; LUX high mortality. ICL; CH; [BE; DE; DK; IRL; NL; NO] low [med] mort.
- Med circul: SP; MLT; IT; PT; FR; FL,low mort.
- Low circul (<70), low mort: SP=1.16; SE=0.99.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
It faces strong waves of #COVID19, with:
- Alarming mortality: BLG (R-eff=0.90); Croatia; Hungary; Latvia; Lithuania; Moldova=0.89; Romania=0.74; UKR;
- Very high mort: Czechia; Estonia; Russia; Serbia; SLK:
- High mortality: Poland (53.6% 1 dose).

4/9 - Africa -
Libya (R-eff=1.01) is plateauing above its #COVID19 safety zone, with medium mortality (23.3% received 1 dose).
Botswana=1.17 (31.4%), worrying surge, while very low reported mortality;
Underreporting from many countries.

5/9 - Middle-East
Jordan (R-eff=1.11, 39.7% received 1 dose) is increasing in its #COVID19 epid activ, with medium mortality.
Qatar=1.11 is leaving its safety zone.
Iran=0.93, slowly landing, med mort;
Israel=0.90 (73.3%) slowly landing, with very low mort.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
South Korea (R-eff=1.06) / and Vietnam=1.23 are increasing/surging in their #COVID19 activity, low mort.
Laos=1.13 rises, very low mortality; while Kazakhstan; Malaysia; Mongolia; Thailand are slowly landing, with medium mortality, for 7 more days.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
Singapore (R-eff=0.92, 82.0% 1 dose) slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, high mort.;
NZ=1.14 is close to leave its safety zone, very low mort.
Australia=0.87 landing (76.7%), very low mort;
China=1.02, 69 cases/d; Taiwan; JP safe zone.

8/9 - North America -
Canada (R-eff=1.02) plateauing above its #COVID19 safety zone, low mort, 80.1% 1 dose: red in BC, Alb; Manit, Ont.; Queb; Orange in Saskatch.
The USA=1.03, plateauing at high level, high mort. (68.0%), orange in 4 states, red in 46.

9/9 - Latin America -
Chile=1.10 (87.3% 1 dose); Uruguay=0.97 (80.0%); Colombia=1.10; Bolivia=1.23; Dom Rep=1.11 have left their #COVID19 safety zones.
Belize=0.86, landing, high mortality;
Brazil=0.99, med mortality.
Mexico; Argentina; Peru: safe

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0