Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Nov 11 to Nov 17 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- High circul (>140 cases/100Kpop/7d):
High mortality: UK (R-eff=0.87); GR;AT; IRL; LUX;
Med mort: BE; DE; DK;NL; NO;
Low mort: ICL;CH;
- Med circul: SP; IT;PT;FR;FL, low mort.
- Low circul (<70), low mort: MLT=1.28;SP=1.17; SE=0.96.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
It faces strong waves of #COVID19, with:
- Alarming mortality: BLG (R-eff=0.88); Croatia; Hungary (60.2% 1 dose); Latvia; Lithuania; Moldova=0.87; Romania=0.72; UKR;
- Very high mort: Czechia; Estonia; Russia; Serbia; SLK:
- High mort: Poland (53.7%).

4/9 - Africa -
Libya (R-eff=1.06) is increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality (23.4% received 1 dose).
Botswana=1.16 (33.5%), worrying surge, while very low reported mortality;
Underreporting from many countries.

5/9 - Middle-East
Jordan (R-eff=1.12, 39.8% received 1 dose) is increasing in its #COVID19 epid activ, with medium mortality.
Qatar=1.10 is leaving its safety zone.
Iran=0.91, slowly landing, med mort;
Israel=0.88 (73.4%) slowly landing, with very low mort.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Laos (R-eff=1.11)/Vietnam=1.21 are rising/surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality, while Kazakhstan; Malaysia; Mongolia; Thailand are slowly landing, with medium to high mortality, for 7 more days.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
South Korea (R-eff=1.06) is leaving its #COVID19 safety zone, very low mort;
NZ=1.15 is close to leave its safe zone, very low mort;
Singapore (82.0% 1 dose); AUS (77.1%) slowly landing, high [low] mort;
China=1.04, 75 cases/d; Taiwan; JP safe zone.

8/9 - North America -
Canada (R-eff=1.05) is increasing again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, low mort, 80.1% 1 dose: red in BC, Alb; Manit, Ont.; Queb; Orange in Saskatch.
The USA=1.05, increase again at high level, high mort. (68.2%), orange in 4 states, red in 46.

9/9 - Latin America -
Chile=1.11 (87.7% 1 dose); Uruguay=0.98 (80.0%); Colombia=1.11; Bolivia=1.26; Dom Rep=1.11 have left their #COVID19 safety zones.
Belize=0.91, slow landing, alarming mortality;
Brazil=0.97, med mortality.
Mexico; Argentina; Peru: safe

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0