It's difficult not to be super exited on $GLNG outlook. Despite their efforts to simplify the company, I admit is still complex, but I would say it could mean a change for the LNG spin-off next year. Take a look, the core business is amazing and the stock is too cheap to ignore!
NFE stake is worth more than $500M right now, but I argue the current valuation isn't fair. Despite YTD weakness, the long-term thesis of attractive free cash flow and growth remains intact. The market isn't considering downstream terminals growth, blue hydrogen and Fast LNG
I'd say the perception of NFE being short of gas has impacted the stock. However, NFE recently upgraded its guidance and showed the growth has not slowed down. We are very bullish on 2022-23 with a target price of $50, which implies almost $9 of $13 Golar current valuation
Shipping. The market is tight as the current rates show and it's not going to ease anytime soon. Golar has not fully benefited from this environment. However, 2022 looks great with current legacy charters ending. I expect record results for 2022 and a spin-off by 2H22
FLNG. The best part where Golar has unique, wonderful and proven technology. Hilli performance has been stellar and will add at least $100M FCF next year due to the oil derivative and T3. Perenco is hurriedly drilling, so I expect good news on increasing the production in 1H21
Growth? Gimi is coming online soon. I'd say it justifies the current market cap excluding NFE and Avenir stakes. Gimi adds $100M FCF after debt service each year during the next 20 starting from late 2023. Take or pay, hedged against inflation and BP as a conterparty. Wow!!
Also, I expect a new FLNG project during 2022. BP/Kosmos have invested $5.5bn to get 2.5Mpta on phase 1 and will only require $0.9bn to double the production. Also, they priorize a low carbon footprint and nobody can't compete against Golar technology. It's only a matter of time!
Last, there is a huge opp for Golar to build their own gas project and if it's successful, the stock could be worth $100. Liquidity is not a problem anymore and I feel Golar will move forward really fast
Stock performance has been disappointing, but patience will pay off!
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