It's difficult not to be super exited on $GLNG outlook. Despite their efforts to simplify the company, I admit is still complex, but I would say it could mean a change for the LNG spin-off next year. Take a look, the core business is amazing and the stock is too cheap to ignore!
NFE stake is worth more than $500M right now, but I argue the current valuation isn't fair. Despite YTD weakness, the long-term thesis of attractive free cash flow and growth remains intact. The market isn't considering downstream terminals growth, blue hydrogen and Fast LNG
I'd say the perception of NFE being short of gas has impacted the stock. However, NFE recently upgraded its guidance and showed the growth has not slowed down. We are very bullish on 2022-23 with a target price of $50, which implies almost $9 of $13 Golar current valuation
Shipping. The market is tight as the current rates show and it's not going to ease anytime soon. Golar has not fully benefited from this environment. However, 2022 looks great with current legacy charters ending. I expect record results for 2022 and a spin-off by 2H22
FLNG. The best part where Golar has unique, wonderful and proven technology. Hilli performance has been stellar and will add at least $100M FCF next year due to the oil derivative and T3. Perenco is hurriedly drilling, so I expect good news on increasing the production in 1H21
Growth? Gimi is coming online soon. I'd say it justifies the current market cap excluding NFE and Avenir stakes. Gimi adds $100M FCF after debt service each year during the next 20 starting from late 2023. Take or pay, hedged against inflation and BP as a conterparty. Wow!!
Also, I expect a new FLNG project during 2022. BP/Kosmos have invested $5.5bn to get 2.5Mpta on phase 1 and will only require $0.9bn to double the production. Also, they priorize a low carbon footprint and nobody can't compete against Golar technology. It's only a matter of time!
Last, there is a huge opp for Golar to build their own gas project and if it's successful, the stock could be worth $100. Liquidity is not a problem anymore and I feel Golar will move forward really fast
Stock performance has been disappointing, but patience will pay off!
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$GLNG YPF's CEO can say it louder but can't say it clearer!!
Last Friday, Horacio participated in a conference in Houston:
Phase 1 of the Argentina LNG project, which consists of 2 Golar vessels, will be FID next April. The offtaker will likely be Germany
The second big project (oil pipeline) approved by the RIGI fiscal regime was recently announced. The next one is the Argentina LNG project, which requires the Hilli, MK2, and a pipeline from Vaca Muerta. I expect Hilli and the pipeline to be online around Q3 2027, while MK2 will be in early 2028
When the MK2 contract is announced, Golar's fair value will increase to $60. Notice that this target price will be based only on the current assets and doesn't include any growth
New day and more news coming from YPF’s CEO… I feel it’s a done deal!
Fasten your seatbelts!! 😜
“we are finalizing the final agreement with a company to bring two ships together with PAE, Pampa, and Harbour Energy. We will have six million tons, which will be available starting in September 2027, and we hope to have the second ship ready by 2028,”
The only company in the world that can supply two FLNG by 2027 and 2028 is Golar!
Let me ask… how much is worth $800/900m EBITDA for 20y starting in late 2027? GLNG EV is less than $5bn
Yesterday, Jefferies raised TP on $NMM up to $80. Omar sees the company undervalued from a NAV perspective ($155 NAV vs 57 current price), but more importantly on FCF (25% FCF yield) with room to grow because the newbuildings to be delivered
Navios is a unique shipping company with exposure to three segments: tankers, dry bulk, and containerships. Those segments have their own supply/demand dynamics and provide fantastic stability. That means NMM can play spot or take longer charters, depending on the cycle view
For example, knowing the order book, I think it's wise to have a longer duration on containers and play the spot in Capes/VLCCs where there is less backlog and compelling demand while being a bit more conservative on the smaller sizes. That's precisely what NMM is doing right now
$NMM The stock is up almost 90% YTD adding around $25/sh. However, the stock is still ridiculously cheap!
As I recently recently in an interview with @MarhelmData, NAV is up around $40/sh YTD (from $90/100 to 130/140) and could reach $150 by the year end. JF estimates a $158 NAV!
Moreover, NMM is nearing its leverage target and has recently started buybacks. There is no need to explain how accretive these repurchases are to NAV given the current discounts.
AF is renewing the fleet without taking risks. She understands that newbuildings are expensive from an historical perspective, so she always try to mitigate the residual value risk with LT charters. We've seen between 50 to 100% paybacks on acquisitions by the end of the charters
Pax Global communicated a Profit Warning last Friday in line with HK regulations. In the statement, Pax announced that they expect a 30% to 40% decrease in net profit compared to 1H 2023.
Although it could surprise many of you, it's not that bad when you dive in 👇
Last March, Pax announced an ambitious guidance. They were looking to grow 5%/15% in revenue and maintain a stable operating margin. That was somewhat surprising considering the POS business has a high dependence on the retail sector and the retail environment is very tough
POS replacement happens every 4-5 years and provides stability to Pax, but the POS segment needs new shop openings to grow. Closings and openings are a key driver, and shops are resisting nowadays, but demand is weak in the current interest environment
When I pitch Nagacorp, one of the main pushbacks is around Chinese tourism coming back. More or less, investors understand how profitable and FCF generative the business is, the strong balance sheet and the shareholder-friendly policy
In 2019, Nagacorp contributed approximately 27% of local GDP tourism growth and approximately 1.2% of the national GDP in Cambodia, therefore, Nagacorp is very correlated with Cambodia's tourism which grew strongly until covid
By now, the Chinese aren't traveling abroad. Three reasons explain it: 1. Government promotes domestic tourism, 2. Still fear of Covid and problems that might arise if they get infected out of China, 3. Less budget as macro isn't very good
Nagacorp management are likely in shock after reading Moody's research and the stock reaction. Naga issued and statement confirming the cash position by October 17. It would not be surprising if Naga had not reported the cash on September 30 just 20 days ago!
By the end of September, Naga had $298M cash and 472M debt (bond maturity June 2024). Cash has increased to $324M, but some working capital movements exist. Naga is making 28/29M monthly EBITDA or 342M annual EBITDA. Taxes are included while net interest are 30M.
No growth capex as the company has postponed Naga 3, while maintenance capex is 20-30M per year. That means 282M FCF per year and 212M in the next 9 months. 298M cash + 80M dr.Chen loan + 212M cash generation= 590M which is enough to cover 472M payment in June 2024