Thread by @therealarod1984

11/19 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* The Start of the Winter wave is here
* All the metrics are showing small increases
* Banking on the vaccines being effective and reducing the amplitude of the wave is looking increasingly like a pipe dream.

1/n
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11/19 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete.

As of 11/09:
* Positivity rate rising to 4.47%
* Testing increasing 7DMA ~ 83.8K
* Positive Test 7DMA ~ 3748
* Covidestim Rt creeping up to 0.74

2/n
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11/19 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA is slowly increasing
* 7DMA of 2796 cases, rising 20% week over week
* Will start watching the amplitude of the wave.
* Probably will adjust my charting to compare Winters directly

3/n
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11/19 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Covid Admits slowly rising 11% Week over week the past several days. 358 per day 7DMA
* % of beds tagged as Covid still in the 4.3% range, total Covid census of 2730 beds
* 7DMA WoW rate of decline nearly 0%
.
covid-texas.csullender.com
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4/n
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11/19 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* CDC % of ED visits with C19 lines up with DSHS data
* ICU portion of the bed census is 950
* 2020 Winter Wave was well underway at this point, from cases through hosps & ICU. 2021 Winter is about to do the same thing

5/n
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11/19 Conclusion

* Winter Wave is here
* Anecdotally - 2 people very close to me have Covid, one hospitalized, both vaxxed
* 2/3 of TX has either been vaxxed or infected or both
* Yet El Paso's wave has started off similar to 2020. Not a good sign

6/end