Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Healthcare data analysis, advocacy & snark 🐘 https://t.co/ol5x7WaYzF 🐳 https://t.co/WKpeWRMksN 🧵 https://t.co/hQQ3vS7OlT

Nov 22, 2021, 54 tweets

📣📣 It's been several months, so it's time once again to look at the *county-level* COVID vaccination rates of all 50 states by 2020 partisan lean.

As always, these graphs only include county residents who've received 2 Pfizer/Moderna or 1 J&J dose (boosters not included yet).

📣📣 Other important caveats:

--Every state has a small percent of total vaccinated residents whose county of residence is unknown; those aren't included here.

--The vaccination rates are out of the TOTAL population, not just adults/over 12/over 5.

ALABAMA:

ALASKA. Note that Bristol Bay only has 844 residents.

ARIZONA. Pretty strong partisan correlation here. Also note that ~60% of the total state population is in Maricopa County, which skews the results.

ARKANSAS.

CALIFORNIA. Yeah, that's a pretty steep slope & a pretty strong correlation, I'd say.

COLORADO. Whoa.

CONNECTICUT, DELAWARE, DC, HAWAII & RHODE ISLAND: None of these have more than 8 counties/county-equivalents, so I'm lumping them together.

Note that Kalawao County, HI only has 82 residents, all of whom are either former Hanson's Disease victims or healthcare workers.

FLORIDA. Important:

1. Miami-Dade: The vaxx rate of actual *residents* is almost certainly significantly lower than shown (see link): acasignups.net/21/11/16/snowb…

2. Sumter: This is home of The Villages, the massive MAGA senior/retirement community.

GEORGIA.

IDAHO.

ILLINOIS.

INDIANA.

IOWA.

KANSAS. I seem to recall reading an article about how Graham County managed to have a very successful vaccination program despite being deep red a few months back.

KENTUCKY.

LOUISIANA. I've never gotten a straight answer about how what's going on in West Feliciana Parish other than it being home to the LA State Penitentiary (which has 1/3 of the population)?

MAINE. The slope is shallow but check out that R^2 correlation...nearly a straight shot.

MARYLAND. Montgomery County is kicking ass.

MASSACHUSETTS. Even in a completely blue state, there's *still* a slight partisan pattern.

Note that Dukes & Nantucket are *both* 93% fully vaxxed, according to state health dept. data. Being island resorts I assume they don't have many children as permanent residents?

My home state of MICHIGAN.
Wayne County (home of Detroit) is troubling.

MINNESOTA.

MISSISSIPPI. COVID-19 has killed 1 out of every 290 residents of the state, yet only a single county has vaccinated more than 60% of its population.

MISSOURI. Remember that St. Louis City is a separate census area from St. Louis County.

📣 OK, that's the first half of the states...I should be adding Montana - Wyoming to this thread later this afternoon.

I'll also be running the county-level *death rates since June* for every state later this week for comparison.

Sorry, the other half will have to wait until tomorrow…

📣 OK, HERE'S PART TWO...

MONTANA:

NEBRASKA:

NEVADA (again, keep in mind that Clark County holds 73% of the total state population):

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Only 10 counties, so not many data points to work with:

NEW JERSEY:

NEW MEXICO. R^2 of nearly 0.8.

NEW YORK. Brooklyn & The Bronx need to step it up.

NORTH CAROLINA: Not sure what's up with Hoke County?

NORTH DAKOTA: Most other heavily Native American counties have an extremely *high* vaccination rate, but Sioux County is lagging. Not sure why.

OHIO. Holmes County is just sad.

OKLAHOMA:

OREGON: Take Baker County out of the equation and that's about as straight a line as you'll see.

PENNSYLVANIA:

SOUTH CAROLINA:

SOUTH DAKOTA:

TENNESSEE:

TEXAS: Yeah, I know you can't read most of the county names; TX has 254 of them.

I'm scratching my head about Hudspeth County, but good for them, assuming this isn't a data glitch (it comes from the state health dept):

UTAH:

VERMONT:

VIRGINIA: I think VA is the only state which has both a) a large number of counties/county-equivalents and b) not much of a partisan pattern. Might be connected to their unusual system of half the "counties" being cities?

WASHINGTON STATE:

WEST VIRGINIA. Believe it or not, WV *led* the nation in vaccinations back in March...today it's dead last.

WISCONSIN:

Finally, WYOMING. R-squared: 0.8467.

I call this the "Thor's Twins" graph after the famous scene from The Hunt for Red October.

📣 PUT ALL 3,144 COUNTIES TOGETHER AND HERE'S AMERICA AS OF NOVEMBER 2021:

If you find my work useful & want to support it, you can do so here, thank you!
acasignups.net/support

📣 UPDATE: Here's the weekly county-level *national* graph with additional details:
acasignups.net/21/11/23/weekl…

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