Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 22, 2021 54 tweets 13 min read Read on X
📣📣 It's been several months, so it's time once again to look at the *county-level* COVID vaccination rates of all 50 states by 2020 partisan lean.

As always, these graphs only include county residents who've received 2 Pfizer/Moderna or 1 J&J dose (boosters not included yet).
📣📣 Other important caveats:

--Every state has a small percent of total vaccinated residents whose county of residence is unknown; those aren't included here.

--The vaccination rates are out of the TOTAL population, not just adults/over 12/over 5.
ALABAMA:
ALASKA. Note that Bristol Bay only has 844 residents.
ARIZONA. Pretty strong partisan correlation here. Also note that ~60% of the total state population is in Maricopa County, which skews the results.
ARKANSAS.
CALIFORNIA. Yeah, that's a pretty steep slope & a pretty strong correlation, I'd say.
COLORADO. Whoa.
CONNECTICUT, DELAWARE, DC, HAWAII & RHODE ISLAND: None of these have more than 8 counties/county-equivalents, so I'm lumping them together.

Note that Kalawao County, HI only has 82 residents, all of whom are either former Hanson's Disease victims or healthcare workers.
FLORIDA. Important:

1. Miami-Dade: The vaxx rate of actual *residents* is almost certainly significantly lower than shown (see link): acasignups.net/21/11/16/snowb…

2. Sumter: This is home of The Villages, the massive MAGA senior/retirement community.
GEORGIA.
IDAHO.
ILLINOIS.
INDIANA.
IOWA.
KANSAS. I seem to recall reading an article about how Graham County managed to have a very successful vaccination program despite being deep red a few months back.
KENTUCKY.
LOUISIANA. I've never gotten a straight answer about how what's going on in West Feliciana Parish other than it being home to the LA State Penitentiary (which has 1/3 of the population)?
MAINE. The slope is shallow but check out that R^2 correlation...nearly a straight shot.
MARYLAND. Montgomery County is kicking ass.
MASSACHUSETTS. Even in a completely blue state, there's *still* a slight partisan pattern.

Note that Dukes & Nantucket are *both* 93% fully vaxxed, according to state health dept. data. Being island resorts I assume they don't have many children as permanent residents?
My home state of MICHIGAN.
Wayne County (home of Detroit) is troubling.
MINNESOTA.
MISSISSIPPI. COVID-19 has killed 1 out of every 290 residents of the state, yet only a single county has vaccinated more than 60% of its population.
MISSOURI. Remember that St. Louis City is a separate census area from St. Louis County.
📣 OK, that's the first half of the states...I should be adding Montana - Wyoming to this thread later this afternoon.

I'll also be running the county-level *death rates since June* for every state later this week for comparison.
Sorry, the other half will have to wait until tomorrow…
📣 OK, HERE'S PART TWO...

MONTANA:
NEBRASKA:
NEVADA (again, keep in mind that Clark County holds 73% of the total state population):
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Only 10 counties, so not many data points to work with:
NEW JERSEY:
NEW MEXICO. R^2 of nearly 0.8.
NEW YORK. Brooklyn & The Bronx need to step it up.
NORTH CAROLINA: Not sure what's up with Hoke County?
NORTH DAKOTA: Most other heavily Native American counties have an extremely *high* vaccination rate, but Sioux County is lagging. Not sure why.
OHIO. Holmes County is just sad.
OKLAHOMA:
OREGON: Take Baker County out of the equation and that's about as straight a line as you'll see.
PENNSYLVANIA:
SOUTH CAROLINA:
SOUTH DAKOTA:
TENNESSEE:
TEXAS: Yeah, I know you can't read most of the county names; TX has 254 of them.

I'm scratching my head about Hudspeth County, but good for them, assuming this isn't a data glitch (it comes from the state health dept):
UTAH:
VERMONT:
VIRGINIA: I think VA is the only state which has both a) a large number of counties/county-equivalents and b) not much of a partisan pattern. Might be connected to their unusual system of half the "counties" being cities?
WASHINGTON STATE:
WEST VIRGINIA. Believe it or not, WV *led* the nation in vaccinations back in March...today it's dead last.
WISCONSIN:
Finally, WYOMING. R-squared: 0.8467.

I call this the "Thor's Twins" graph after the famous scene from The Hunt for Red October.
📣 PUT ALL 3,144 COUNTIES TOGETHER AND HERE'S AMERICA AS OF NOVEMBER 2021:
If you find my work useful & want to support it, you can do so here, thank you!
acasignups.net/support
📣 UPDATE: Here's the weekly county-level *national* graph with additional details:
acasignups.net/21/11/23/weekl…

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More from @charles_gaba

Nov 10
Here's an updated version of my "Dem Stop the Steal!" conspiracy theory thread which hopefully is less scattershot.

There's 3 main claims:

1. "How could there be 20M fewer voters than in 2020 w/"record-breaking turnout?"

2. "How could 15M fewer voter for Harris vs. Biden?"
3. "How could so many swing state voters vote for the Dem for Senate but not for Harris for POTUS?"

There's a few others, but these are the biggest ones, so let's tackle them first:
1. There weren't 20M fewer voters.

I've been compiling the data as it's being updated by CNN's tracking center via a Google spreadsheet. As of this writing, total POTUS turnout is ~147.6M, or ~10.8M lower than 2020's 158.4M.

cnn.com/election/2024/…

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 46 tweets
Nov 8
Yesterday I posted a thread digging into the actual data behind the "20M missing votes!" and "15M fewer than Biden!" conspiracy theories being tossed around the past few days.

I've updated my spreadsheet using the latest data from CNN:
cnn.com/election/2024/…Image
Short Version:

Via CNN, as of this writing, total 2024 POTUS votes are only down 13.9 million vs. 2020...with a likely 11.5 - 12.0 million ballots still to be counted across 30 states.

Total 2024 turnout will likely be ~156M or so...just a couple million fewer than 2020.
Again, using CNN's data & estimates, once every legitimate ballot has been counted, Trump will likely have around ~78 million votes to Harris' 75-76 million.

That'd mean he added ~4 million vs 2020 while she lost ~5-6 million.

Both of these would still suck, of course.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 3
As the guy who obsessed over precisely this data for nearly 3 years, let me address this:

My best estimate is that around 150,000 more Trump 2020 voters than Biden 2020 voters died between Nov. 2020 & Nov. 2022.

That's a lot of people. HOWEVER... 1/

acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
...the vast majority of this discrepancy happened in districts/counties which were heavily red to begin with, which is why the MAGA COVID Death Cult factor only ended up making a decisive difference in exactly one statewide race: Arizona Attorney General:
acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…
At the House district level it didn't make a decisive difference in any races at all. To understand why, let's look at two extreme examples...

acasignups.net/22/12/13/updat…
Read 10 tweets
Oct 31
People have started asking why I'm still pushing fundraising for Dems just 5 days before Election Day. All the ad time has been purchased & the lit pieces printed & mailed out already, right?

There's several reasons: 1/
1. For state legislative races in particular, a last-minute cash infusion of even $50 can mean an extra few pizzas for tired & hungry canvassers or an extra burner phone for phone banking.

Blue24.org/state-leg
2. After the polls close, there's going to no doubt be some races which require recounts...which may or may not have to be paid for by the campaign requesting it, depending on the state and the margin. That's gonna cost money.

Blue24.org/endgame
Read 4 tweets
Oct 31
🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 40 tweets
Oct 6
(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ Image
A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…
As it happens, the aerial shot shows several presumably standard trailer vans lined up neatly in a row just outside the perimeter in the lower right.

By copying & pasting one of them, it looks like the venue runs around 7 trailer vans x 4 trailer vans. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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