Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/5 - France (R-eff=1.28) is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 27,940 cases and 75 deaths/day foreseen by Nov 30, if at same pace;
77.2% of pop 1 dose;
Forecast from Nov 24 to 27:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/5 - Six mainland Régions are surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with increasing medium mortality, for 7 more days:
Centre-Val-Loire (R-eff=1.26);
Corse=1.25;
Hauts-de-France=1.28;
Ile-de-France=1.27;
Normandie=1.26.
Occitanie=1.33.

3/5 - Seven mainland Régions are surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality, for 7 more days:
AURA (R-eff=1.35);
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté=1.35;
Bretagne=1.18;
Grand-Est=1.28;
Nouv-Aquitaine=1.24;
Pays-de-la-Loire=1.20;
PACA=1.29.

4/5 – Two overseas Régions are experiencing rises in their #COVID19 epidemic activity:
Réunion (R-eff=1.12), with low mortality.
Martinique=1.12, with high mortality;

5/5 - Three overseas Régions are very close to their #COVID19 safety zone:
Guadeloupe (R-eff=0.95), plateauing at low levels, with low mortality;
Guyane=0.80, landing, with no expected mortality;
Mayotte=0.86, low activity, with no expected mortality.

6/5 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

7/5 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0