Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Nov 24 to Nov 30 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
High #COVID19 circulation everywhere now:
Very high mort: GR; AT (R-eff=1.14);
High mort: UK=1.07;DE=1.17;BE;NL=1.18;
Med mort: DK;NO;PT;CH;IT;FR;
Low mort: ICL;IRL;FL;LUX;MLT;SE=1.17;SP=1.25;

3/9 - East-Central Europe
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- Rising-Surging in epidemic activity: Hung=1.17;Czechia=1.25; Slovk=1.12 [Poland=1.15];
- Plateauing: Croatia; [Russia];
- Landing : Bulgar; Latvia; Lithuan; Moldov; Ukr; [Eston; Roman; Serbia];
With alarming [very high] mort.

4/9 - Africa -
Libya (R-eff=0.97) is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality (24.2% received 1 dose).
Botswana is flirting with its safety zone, no reported mortality.
Underreporting from many countries.

5/9 - Middle-East
Israel (R-eff=1.06) (73.6% received 1 dose) is increasing again, low mortality.
Jordan=1.16, (40.5%) is rising in its #COVID19 epid activ, medium mortality.
Lebanon=1.09 (27.3%), medium mort.;
Qatar=1.03 is plateauing just above its safety zone, no mortality.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Laos (R-eff=1.07)/Vietnam=1.15 are increasing/rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low/medium mortality;
Malaysia=1.01; Mongolia=0.72; Thailand=0.95 high activity, with medium to high mortality, for 7 more days.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
South Korea (R-eff=1.16) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, low mortality;
New-Zealand=1.02 and Australia=1.03 are flirting with their safety zone.
Singapore (87.4% 1 dose) landing, medium mortality;
China; Taiwan; Japan safe zone.

8/9 - North America -
Canada (R-eff=1.05) is increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, low mort, 80.6% 1 dose: red (>0.90) in all Provinces.
The USA=1.04, increasing at high level, high mort. (70.1%), red in 47 states, but in Alaska, Montana, Wyoming (orange).

9/9 - Latin America -
Chile=0.99 (88.6% 1 dose); Uruguay=1.03 (80.2%); Colombia=1.01; Bolivia=1.19; Peru=1.12;Dom Rep=0.91 have left their #COVID19 safety zones.
Brazil; Mexico; Argentina: safe

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0