Thread by @Pataramesh

Can Irans Fordow enrichment site be destroyed?

Is the reported 90m very-hard granite overburden➕backpacked steel-concrete liner sufficient to stop:

➡️ 🇺🇸 Massive ordnance penetrator?

➡️ 🇺🇸 Nuclear earth penetrator?

➡️ 🇺🇸 & 🇮🇱 Nuclear ballistic missile warheads?

A thread ⏬

What is Fordow capable of?

➡️ Hardrock type is known to be Granite of unknown strength (140-230 Mpa), with an reported overburden of 90m

➡️ Heavy backpacked concrete steel tunnel liner is used

Graphic below shows an attack by 250kt nuclear warhead delivered by Jericho/Trident

With known heavy Iranian liner types interpolated at 2,5 kbar:

➡️ Probability of damage is just 10% with an avarage value of granite compressive strenght

➡️ It is estimated to decrease to 2-5% with very hard granite, which is most likely and the reason for site selection Fordow

Appears that the design point of Fordow is also the most likely scenario of the 3:

➡️ Ballistic missile attack by non-MaRV'ed Jericho-2 (or Trident-II)

Against which it would most likely remain intact (vibration sensitive centrifuges excluded)

Multiple hits to some extend too

Scenario:

1: MOP is non-feasible in terms of penetration, except temporarily blocking entrances

2: Aircraft delivered nuclear earth penetrator would work, but given:

➡️ Depth of Fordow in 🇮🇷 heartland
➡️ Improvement of 🇮🇷 air-defense

Would require a long, total war campaign

This shows why Fordow is of such a key importance for Irans nuclear leverage and latent capability

➡️ It also shows why 🇮🇱 threats on a strike against 🇮🇷 uranium enrichment capability, even with its most potent weapon; nuclear Jericho-2 BMs is simply infeasible

➡️ JCPOA Psyops