COVID Update: A new variant in southern Africa has emerged & is grabbing global concern.
What do we know about it? Should we be worried? 1/
In situations like this, it is useful to separate into what is known with good certainty, what is unknown, and what is being speculated.
Then I will address the “what if…” question. 2/
Known—
B.1.1.529 (it will be given a Greek alphabet name today) originated in South Africa and Botswana and cases have been recorded among travelers in Belgium, Hong Kong, and Israel. 3/
What we know so far doesn’t paint a full picture.
The variant has a lot of mutations— over 50. The ACE2 receptor, which allows the virus to bind to our cells, has over 10 mutations according to scientists in S Africa. 4/
There is a lot more that we don’t know. While there are still a limited number of cases that mutation profile has scientists concerned that possibly neither prior immunity nor a vaccine will be effective— or as effective— at preventing spread & infection. 5/
Some of the characteristics of the variant are reminiscent of Beta and Lambda, two variants that became concerning, but ultimately haven’t been able to compete with Delta. 6/
It will take 2 weeks or so to test in a lab whether the mRNA vaccines are effective and if so, how effective they are. In the meantime, there will be speculation from limited reporting. 7/
It is reported that many of the cases were among younger people in South Africa, who are largely unvaccinated. Does that mean something? Maybe. 8/
South Africa has one of the most sophisticated detection systems & many scientists have pointed to lower vaccination levels@in Africa & an abundance of immunocompromised people as a breeding ground for new variants. 9/
This leads to speculation that there is more spread than discovered. Currency, stock, bond & oil traders began the day in near panic— airline stocks are down, Netflix is up.
People who get paid to speculate will speculate. For the rest of us, there’s no sport in it. 10/
The unanswered questions are important ones. Even if a variant creates more difficulty for the immune system, it’s rate of spread is important. If it doesn’t outcompete Delta, it will likely be more limited in its reach as long as Delta continues to spread. 11/
We’ve all gotten nervous enough that it’s worth answering the question, “but what if it does evade prior immunity and outcompetes Delta?” 12/
It’s foolhardy to predict the future but smart to prepare. And we have been preparing.
The mRNA vaccines are built on a platform which allow for very rapid development of new vaccines to tackle emerging variants should they be of major concern. 13/
Both Pfizer & Moderna estimate 100 days to develop a vaccine for a new variant.
Manufacturing, approvals & distribution take time but we are getting more efficient at all. If we start in early December, new vaccines could be available by summer in much of the world. 14/
This explains Europe, already dealing with waves & worries over variants, decided to shut down travel from S Africa until more is learned.
Holding the variant at bay while keeping hospitals open is now a learned impulse. But is it a good one? 15/
Banning travel hasn’t seemed to be anything close to a panacea. And it punishes countries and their economies who make and report discoveries.
There’s an ugly irony as well. 16/
We (the G20) couldn’t vaccinate Africa fast enough despite abundant vaccines & so now we will increase the costs to them of our failure. 17/
The WHO today, in concert with scientists in the region, will determine whether this is officially a variant of concern. 18/
Part of all of us go into hyperdrive when we see certain words— new variant, evade immunity, travel ban. These are learned responses.
But there have also been many false alarms, assumptions made, panic, and over-reactions. 19/
So much less is known than will be speculated. What seems clear is that vaccinating the globe & pockets of the US that are still unvaccinated remain the priority.
And masks, portable air filters, staying outdoors, and other tools remain our friends should cases rise. 20/
We have the tools to minimize the effects of even a new problematic variant.
They, as with the rest of the pandemic, rely on some amount of collective action. Probably why the markets are down. /end
Post-script: The WHO met today and labeled the new variant, now called #Omicron, a variant of concern
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