The 12th WTO Ministerial Conference #MC12 is postponed. What now?
Can ambassadors get close to agreement on their own? They couldn’t in November.
And can ministers find the necessary compromises on Zoom?
Fingers crossed. With @BobWolfeSPS
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GOOD NEWS:
• ministers avoided embarrassment of a failed #MC12 meeting (although spin would have made it look like it achieved a lot, not just kicked cans)
• the approaching meeting focused minds, produced lots of work, before it was abandoned
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THE BAD
There was so much members disagreed about, most of it with little sign of compromise. They couldn’t even agree on what to call the statement to be issued at the end of the Ministerial Conference #MC12
For now it’s a draft “outcome document”.
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THE CHASM
The WTO risks disappearing into the chasm on reforming its negotiations.
Opposition to smaller-group talks has not stopped countries from going ahead anyway.
But procedural wrangles threaten a formal outcome from the conference #MC12
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THE COST (1)
• Ministers need to meet in person + coordinate with Geneva delegations
• They just might have unblocked 1–2 issues on #FisheriesSubsidies—but more than 1–2 blockages
• So not even the “cacophony of cans being kicked down the road”
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THE COST (2)
• The WTO needs an agreed response to COVID-19.
Some of it would iron out supply-chain & other trade problems. Looks bad not to have one
Even that was badly deadlocked
In any case, no sign of compromise on agriculture or #TRIPSwaiver
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WHERE NEXT?
Members disagree (no surprise) on holding the #MC12 conference in March
@NOIweala wants 2 topics (almost) done by end-Feb—#FisheriesSubsidies & response to COVID-19
But can ambassadors in Geneva do it? Needs higher priority in capitals
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