pieterstreicher Profile picture
Data Analyst. PhD Engineering. Honorary Fellow in the Institute for Medical Humanities - Durham University. The views here represent my own.

Dec 9, 2021, 6 tweets

1 of 6:

Gauteng #Omicron update:

Cases in Gauteng are likely to peak between 12 and 20 December.

The growthrate in 7 day average cases is slowing down consistently. It was 5% per day in the last day, down from 28% per day 12 days ago.

2 of 6:

The total number of patients in hospital is well below the Delta wave.

Since a peak in hospital numbers is expected in 11-21 days, this variable is not a concern anymore.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…

3 of 6:

As we look at more severe outcomes, the numbers are even lower. ICU beds track well below the Delta trajectory.

No restrictions are needed to help hospitals in any way.

4 of 6:

Only 3-4% of patients admitted with #Omicron end up on ventilators.

For Delta, 10-11% of patients ended up on ventilators.

5 of 6:

Short term projections for Gauteng cases, total in hospital, ICU beds and ventilated beds.

All variables, except ventilated beds are running below the projections from 6 days ago.

The 7d growthrate for ventilated beds is 13% per day, not 11% per day (projection).

6 of 6:

Considering that a significant portion of patients in hospital have not been infected before, or are not vaccinated, #Omicron must be significantly less virulent.

The lower age of admissions alone cannot explain the significant drop in disease severity.

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