1 of 6:
Gauteng #Omicron update:
Cases in Gauteng are likely to peak between 12 and 20 December.
The growthrate in 7 day average cases is slowing down consistently. It was 5% per day in the last day, down from 28% per day 12 days ago.
2 of 6:
The total number of patients in hospital is well below the Delta wave.
Since a peak in hospital numbers is expected in 11-21 days, this variable is not a concern anymore.
data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
3 of 6:
As we look at more severe outcomes, the numbers are even lower. ICU beds track well below the Delta trajectory.
No restrictions are needed to help hospitals in any way.
4 of 6:
Only 3-4% of patients admitted with #Omicron end up on ventilators.
For Delta, 10-11% of patients ended up on ventilators.
5 of 6:
Short term projections for Gauteng cases, total in hospital, ICU beds and ventilated beds.
All variables, except ventilated beds are running below the projections from 6 days ago.
The 7d growthrate for ventilated beds is 13% per day, not 11% per day (projection).
6 of 6:
Considering that a significant portion of patients in hospital have not been infected before, or are not vaccinated, #Omicron must be significantly less virulent.
The lower age of admissions alone cannot explain the significant drop in disease severity.
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.