Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Epidemiologist & health economist. Public health early warnings. Faculty @NECSI. Fmr 16 years @Harvard. Short story: https://t.co/eNp7gjyhC0. Early bio: https://t.co/oHWAOO7FXU

Dec 11, 2021, 6 tweets

⚠️Time for VE data—2 shot vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic #Omicron is not good. 🇬🇧data says 2 doses isn’t strong—Pfizer 2 dose VE for 15+ weeks is 34-36%; AstraZeneca 2 doses VE after 25 weeks is just 5.9%. Pfizer booster yields 71-76%.🧵#COVID19
khub.net/documents/1359…

2) So how bad is the data for 2 doses? Well let’s walk through it… the table tells more about the efficacy against #Omicron beyond the figures above. 2 shots of Oxford-AstraZeneca don’t even have enough data for those <25 weeks. But for 25+ weeks, the 5.9% VE stand out.

3) But a 3rd shot (Pfizer booster) after 2 shots of AZ puts one back up to 71.4% VE against symptomatic #Omicron disease after 2 weeks after 3rd shot. This is good news at least. Still waiting for hospitalization VE - coming soon.

4) With 2 shots of Pfizer, the VE starts at 88% between 2-9 weeks after the 2nd shot. Good, but it quickly drops to 48.5% by weeks 10-14 after 2 shots. Then drops and to 31% by 15-19 weeks. Then it hovers at 36.6% at 20-24 weeks. Then 34.2% at 25+ weeks. But 75.5% with booster!👀

5) This study was not by some rogue scientific group. This study was by UK 🇬🇧’s leading UKHSA agency as well as from leading universities in the UK. It’s been endorsed by UK govt as well yesterday

6) here was UK’s reaction to the results. UK scientists are extremely worried and concerned about #Omicron given the low efficacy of 2 shots of especially the AstraZeneca shot, but also relatively low Pfizer 2 shot VE. Thankfully booster VE is moderately okay at 71-75%.

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