📍NOTA BENE—a “mild but faster” virus will often kill & harm more people than a virus that is slower & more severe. Even if just 2x more transmissible & 1/10 less deadly! ➡️Folks who call #Omicron “nature’s vaccine” need to stop the public endangerment. Figure by @GosiaGasperoPhD
2) And we believe #Omicron is not just 2x more contagious but likely 3-4.5x by some estimates.
3) seriously— #Omicron contagiousness (combination of transmission and evasion against past immunity) is at least 3-4x if not even higher than Delta.
4) furthermore, I haven’t seen any good data that #Omicron is truly much milder. South Africa’s new wave is younger than past waves. The hospitalization rates often haven’t been age adjusted, vaccine prevalence adjusted, past infection prevalence adjusted, etc. 🍎 to 🍊.
5) Also the “mutations make a virus milder” is often not supported. With exception of one virus, most viruses like Ebola, Zika, or chikungunya viruses have “shown no signs of becomes less pathogenic”
6) Let’s compare old May wave (blue) versus the new #Omicron wave (in orange) of hospitalizations by age group in Tshwane epicenter. Notice how disproportionately it’s sending over 6x more kids age 0-4 to hospital in the first two weeks of each wave. 👀
7) Bad news is the UK 🇬🇧 is facing a substantial wave of #Omicron infections in January without further restrictions, according to scientists. The researchers said tougher restrictions may be needed to prevent Omicron overwhelming hospitals. #COVID19 bbc.com/news/uk-596210…
8) Let the Netherlands 🇳🇱 be a lesson of what not to do… they basically let the virus rip. And this is the result… huge excess deaths again, close to last year’s peak. And this wasn’t even #Omicron contagiousness.
9) Why do I feel like many of us are in denial about #Omicron? I get we are all tired. I’m so darn tired. But #COVID19 doesn’t get “tired”— the virus has an evolutionary drive to mutate and play dodgeball with our immune system. We must be vigilant and keep up. Don’t be blasé.
10) Wait, I thought someone last year said “kids are practically immune to COVID”…. Hmmmm, maybe the precautionary principled epidemiologists are right and the pure economists are wrong again? 🤷🏻♂️
11) Another key thing to stopping spread is to drop the 6 foot is enough delusion. The virus is airborne folks. 6 feet (2 meters) is minimal safety
12) AGE ADJUSTMENT is lacking in a lot of #Omicron graphs, as well as vaccine or infection adjustment, vs past waves. But if we stratify on age (one method of adjustment), notice how hospitalizations are higher in kids in first 2 weeks. Lower in adults likely cuz of more vaccines
13) WARNING: Objects in the #Omicron Severity Mirror may appear milder than they (actually) are… think like an epidemiologists— think of confounders (like age and vaccine and infections) & think of such modifiers of severity have have changed over time that hide true severity.👇
14) don’t rely on past infection or 2 shots to prevent COVID alone. Definitely get the booster. The data is pretty alarming on how evasive it is. There’s no sugar coating it. 👇
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