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My view of the world

Dec 11, 2021, 11 tweets

New thread for week ended Dec 11th. A quiet high performing week while the nation mourned. #VeeraVanakkam

A solid 53+ million week, well within the top 10, but a lot of competitors between 53-55m keeps it just outside top 5:

Past 3 weeks hold spots 2, 3 and 6.

1/

Daily bucket view is very consistent - five days over 8m being a record, but all in the low 8 million range preventing a larger weekly total.

As with week prior, the week ended with a strong Saturday, which is forming a nice new pattern.

2/

Month total has now crossed 88 million, which is over 8m/day sustained performance for the month to date .

Current pace is as good as or better than September, but the year end holidays may impact the month end total.

3/

Almost 165m doses done in the past three weeks has finally brought the vaccine supply inventory down below 200m after almost a month. 75-80% of this is Covishield.

4/

@SerumInstIndia are cutting production in half from 250m/month.

Total orders: 1518m
Consumed: 1180m
Available Supply: 155m
Remaining to be supplied: 183m

That’s why they’re cutting production - they’ll be done with prior orders very soon.

financialexpress.com/lifestyle/heal…

5/

Additional production is tied to @MoHFW_INDIA booster dose policy.

If boosters are started, <60m doses are needed this month, and the number falls to 40m next 2 months, before rising to 90m+ March.

Well within (lowered) mfg rate to handle still.

6/

Total and second dose rates remain very stable as weekly data showed, with the 2nd dose fraction inching up to above 70% of daily total now:

7/

Some vaccination milestones this week:

800m with at least one dose (technically reached late evening end of prior week but after cutoff)
500m total vaccinated
<300m with only one dose.

Chart heuristic:
Blue = green + red
Yellow = green - red

8/

For the month of Dec to date, India continues to dominate in share of global vaccinations, even as Europe and the Americas accelerate to combat the Xi “call me omicron instead” variant.

9/

The monthly 1st and 2nd dose totals continue to maintain the now familiar trend. With continued strong numbers the month should see 160-170m second doses done and over 200m total. How much above depends on holiday season, booster dose and children’s vaccination policies .

10/

Another strong week of vaccination goes by but with no other major news.

We hope there is good news on booster dose and children’s vaccination approvals coming in the near future, @PMOIndia and @MoHFW_INDIA .

11/11

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