Daily bucket view is very consistent - five days over 8m being a record, but all in the low 8 million range preventing a larger weekly total.
As with week prior, the week ended with a strong Saturday, which is forming a nice new pattern.
2/
Month total has now crossed 88 million, which is over 8m/day sustained performance for the month to date .
Current pace is as good as or better than September, but the year end holidays may impact the month end total.
3/
Almost 165m doses done in the past three weeks has finally brought the vaccine supply inventory down below 200m after almost a month. 75-80% of this is Covishield.
4/
@SerumInstIndia are cutting production in half from 250m/month.
Total orders: 1518m
Consumed: 1180m
Available Supply: 155m
Remaining to be supplied: 183m
That’s why they’re cutting production - they’ll be done with prior orders very soon.
Additional production is tied to @MoHFW_INDIA booster dose policy.
If boosters are started, <60m doses are needed this month, and the number falls to 40m next 2 months, before rising to 90m+ March.
Well within (lowered) mfg rate to handle still.
6/
Total and second dose rates remain very stable as weekly data showed, with the 2nd dose fraction inching up to above 70% of daily total now:
7/
Some vaccination milestones this week:
800m with at least one dose (technically reached late evening end of prior week but after cutoff)
500m total vaccinated
<300m with only one dose.
Chart heuristic:
Blue = green + red
Yellow = green - red
8/
For the month of Dec to date, India continues to dominate in share of global vaccinations, even as Europe and the Americas accelerate to combat the Xi “call me omicron instead” variant.
9/
The monthly 1st and 2nd dose totals continue to maintain the now familiar trend. With continued strong numbers the month should see 160-170m second doses done and over 200m total. How much above depends on holiday season, booster dose and children’s vaccination policies .
10/
Another strong week of vaccination goes by but with no other major news.
We hope there is good news on booster dose and children’s vaccination approvals coming in the near future, @PMOIndia and @MoHFW_INDIA .
11/11
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The IPL is also far more lucrative in revenue per game, despite the fact that with a mere 74 games, it’s in the bottom 5 of sports leagues by number of games played per season.
Each of those games is a money spinner. Let’s look at how much.
2/
In terms of total revenue, the IPL ranks a reasonable 13th position among global leagues, despite having so few games in a single season.
There are only three countries on the planet with $1 trillion+ exports - China, USA and Germany. Even Japan is around $850-900B in FY 2021.
India jumped ~10 ranking places to provisionally #8 this year. Positions 4-7 are Japan, UK, France and Netherlands - all $700-900B.
India began 1949 the 9th biggest exporter.
It left the top 10 by end of that year.
It left the top 20 in 1957.
It reentered the top 20 in 2010, but didn't rise further until 2017-18 when it was 18th ranked. 2021-22 saw a big jump to 8th position.
Today was a day of symmetry as the vaccination total hit 175 crore (1.75 billion), exactly on day 400 since start of vaccination. This corresponds to an average of almost 4.4 million vaccinations a day, over four hundred days.
The monthly total to date is now almost 88 million. February should easily cross 100 million and will likely finish at around 125 million. This is expected as it is predominantly second dose + boosters. March will be much higher as the 12+ group becomes eligible.
2/
With even the second dose numbers not very high now, the daily average over the past week was just 4 million - multiple days towards the end of week being around 3.98 million, and thus still in the 3.x bucket.
So how do you fix sampling error ? You get a small number of people to agree - keeping pop standard deviation down because sample size is tiny.
Disagreement is a problem - if you get half of them to disagree, your sampling error is 20-45% depending on sample size. Oops.
2/
So let us pretend these experts indeed know what they’re doing. Let us look at the data. This author has the entire VDem dataset, analyzed in detail together with @jai_menon :