David H. Montgomery Profile picture
"A French history podcaster and enormous goshdang nerd after our own hearts" — @andrewvandam. Host of @thesiecle; senior data journalist with @YouGovAmerica.

Dec 13, 2021, 8 tweets

The big Q in MN’s #COVID19 stats this week is whether the encouraging drops we saw last week will continue.

Today’s stats are cautiously encouraging. Cases dropped, but some of that was driven by falling testing volume. Positivity rate ony inched down.

Tomorrow’s multi-day data dump will have a bigger swing on the data. Tuesday reports usually include twice as many total tests as Monday reports do.

Obviously we’d have loved to see a bigger drop here, but there’s nothing alarming here.

New #COVID19 hospital admissions continue to rise, especially for non-ICU beds.

By this time last year hospitalization data had already begun to fall steadily. (Our Fall 2020 wave peaked earlier than our possible peak now.)

While #COVID19 hospital *admissions* are up, *bed use* is much, much higher compared to the 2020 peak.

The observed decline in case counts is visible in all regions of Minnesota:

As of today’s report, MN has passed the round-number thresholds of 70% of the total population with at least one dose, and 25% of the population with a booster.

Rates of both boosters and first doses are trending down, however. (Second doses are up, reflecting the initial surge of 5-11-year-olds who immediately got their first doses a month ago.)

Another Monday means another lagged week of data on #COVID19 by vaccination status — and no real changes in relative prevalence. The unvaccinated were still (as of early Nov.) about 4x more likely to catch COVID, and 16x more likely to be hospitalized or die from it.

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