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If it disagrees with the expert, it’s wrong. In that simple statement is the key to consensus.

Dec 23, 2021, 8 tweets

1/ ASMR: A closer look on the Balkan.

Age adjusted seasonal mortality ranking over 3 years.

Reminder: Displayed are 3 flu seasons, not calendar years.

2018: 1.7.2018-30.6.2019
2019: 1.7.2019-30.6.2020
2020: 1.7.2012-30.6.2021

2/ All of the Balkan countries show the spike in season 2020, so July 2020 - June 2021.

Interesting.

We may need to expand on the hypothesis laid out by @hmatejx to understand this as Croatia really isn't known for having done hard lockdowns like the Slovenian neighbours.

3/ This is how 2021 (weeks 1-43) currently ranks.

4/ A look on the raw data. We can see here, how all of the Balkan countries and Austria were hit (root cause tbd.) in the 2nd winter season.

5/ Now adjusted seasonal ASMR mortality maps over 3 years.

Displayed are 3 flu seasons.

2018: 1.7.2018-30.6.2019
2019: 1.7.2019-30.6.2020
2020: 1.7.2012-30.6.2021

We need to understand this. Ideas?

Smoking? Habits? Genetics? Or just GDP per capita?

6/ A closer look to the Slavic countries on a relative season to season change. This level of Y2Y ASMR change is significant.

7/ East Europe by age group now.

This is interesting. The excess goes through all age groups it seems.

Note: red colors start above +7%.

8/ This may be another parameter:

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