Thread by @jason_kint

facebook's fraud lawsuit for inflating its claimed reach for advertisers just posted 95 files (3,646 pages!) - including a lot of the evidence dcn pushed to unseal. includes internal email threads behind prior claims. looks damning. will link to prior threads in a bit. /1

In the thousands of pages, we learn Publicis in France was especially concerned suggesting clients significantly reduce spend leading to their largest client, P&G, supposedly ceasing all spend. They estimated differences of 40-50% in claimed reach vs census in certain targets. /2

We also see Alex Schultz (now CMO) breaking down the source of inflated reach which follow-up docs show he accurately assessed as mostly due to #2 - lying about age and #3 - fake and duplicate accounts. Both listed as "millions" of the inflation... /3

a reminder, this issue surfaced from a press report, caused a flurry of emails by COO, CFO, CMO, etc (now unsealed) where decision was made not to inform investors. That's why a top Senator wrote letter last week and it's part of a SEC complaint, too. Will link in a minute. /4

Back to the docs, we learned there was special sensitivity around "SUMA" (single user multiple accounts) which Schultz indicates wasn't part of the press cycles and that was considered important. Later internal analysis suggested SUMA was 40% of the inflated #s. /5

We also learn "Ineligible Accounts" was considered a massive contributor to inflated reach. How much is still redacted so we're left with an engineer's note of 15-50%. Reminder, Facebook dismisses all of this as "potential reach" that doesn't matter as they don't bill on it. /6

But on that note, smoking gun, we have an internal document that very clearly states why Facebook's reach estimation matters. Even in the case of direct response advertisers buying on clicks, they say it matters. For brand advertisers, it's arguably the most important metrics. /7

there are hundreds of pages of internal debates by emails and slides and chat threads whether Facebook should stop claiming potential reach of "people" and move back to calling them "accounts" in order to avoid what has been said to be fraud (hence this lawsuit). /8

there is also considerable expert analysis of Facebook's inflated reach. One document is nearly 1,000 pages and this chart caught my attention. I imagine it will catch yours, too. Quarter 18 is when Cambridge Analytica broke wide open and Zuckerberg was first called to DC. /9

As someone who has recently experienced Facebook deceptively working to keep me from deleting my account and instead keeping it "inactive," the numbers of inactives being counted towards an inflated reach number is all sorts of suspect. Here is the table for the data. /10

the expert's 923 pages take a variety of data sources to model facebook's inflated reach by country and demographic building to the larger numbers. it's remarkable the SEC and/or independent auditors don't do this to all their data considering prior incidents with FB. /11

We also see again how Carolyn Everson played role to have a council of advertisers "ready on our behalf' with press. Everson is same super senior executive who recently left after other unsealed emails showed her waving a flag of concern over this issue. /12

on a side note, I would also love to see redactions like this considering Facebook claims it doesn't have underage users on FB and Instagram (because "they're not allowed") when this clearly shows they stick to what the user tells them "for a ton of reason"..ahem, legal. /13

press should dig into these new files - happy to help act as a guide. it's critical facebook have external accountability probing the integrity of its #s. here is a thread of prior information summarizing them. /14

and again, here is a direct link to prior unsealed emails including a senior executive matching point that there is no question inflated reach estimations impacted budgets including for small and medium-sized marketers. /15

Here is @SenWarren's letter to the SEC on this concern from just two weeks ago. I frankly don't why there haven't been hearings launched over it. I've long called for a longitudinal audit of Facebook's user accounts. warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/… /16

and here is the complaint to the SEC from Facebook whistleblower (ht @FrancesHaugen). /17 drive.google.com/file/d/1KOytDp…