The BIG Week 16 thread is HERE
1-2 observations for EVERY team
Advanced stats and actionable info
A few players' usage even surprised me 🤫
All advice geared toward winning your fantasy championship in Week 17 🔥
Let's begin with the Cardinals ⬇️⬇️⬇️
James Conner OUT Week 16, already a game-time decision Week 17
Even if Conner plays, start Edmonds in your FF championship
Week 16
Edmonds - 59 snaps, 16-56-1 rushing, 19 routes, 9 tgt, 8-71 receiving, 26.7 PPR
Jonathan Ward - 9 snaps, 1 carry, 3 routes, 0 tgt
Bell. Cow.
Also
ARI projected to lose on the road against DAL, so great game script for Edmonds to handle more touches than Conner.
Other ARI notes
Zach Ertz led all ARI players in Week 16 routes and targets
Kirk had 3x the targets and 7x the receptions of AJ Green in Week 16
On to ATL ⬇️⬇️
Pitts/Gage have low floor Week 17 at BUF (weather game + strong D)
Mentioned a few weeks back Cordarrelle Patterson was becoming a "running" back, & getting less receiving work
Trend is concerning, esp. against a stout
BUF D in Week 17
CPatt's floor is LOW without receptions
Even with a Week 16 TD, CPatt only had 8.3 PPR points
Weeks 2-9: 9.4-32-0.3 rushing, 6.4 tgt, 5.1-63.7-0.7 receiving, 20.7 PPR/game
Weeks 10-16: 11.2-50.2-0.7 rushing, 3.2 tgt, 1.8-10.7-0 receiving, 12.1 PPR/game
BAL⬇️
Past 3 games, with 3 different QBs..
Mark Andrews has AT LEAST
8 receptions
115 receiving yards
1 TD
Andrews the overall TE1, first time since 2015 it hasn't been Kelce
Also, I'd stick with Hollywood Brown this week
Stats below for Hollywood ⬇️⬇️
Past 2 weeks for WRs, sorted by targets (PPR points)
Kupp - 26 tgt (56 PPR)
Hollywood - 23 tgt (23.7)
Amon-Ra - 22 tgt (49.5)
Jefferson - 22 tgt (34.3)
DJ Moore (23.3)
Kirk - 21 tgt (36.2)
Adams - 20 tgt (49.8)
Diggs - 20 tgt (35)
Meyers - 20 tgt (23.2)
Fire up Marquise Brown,
especially if Lamar Jackson returns this week
Beasley/Davis activated off Covid list, so I wouldn't start Isaiah McKenzie after his 29.4 PPR point eruption Week 16
Singletary IS viable Week 17 vs a terrible ATL run D, and is a total bell cow (seriously)
Stats below ⬇️⬇️
Week 15
Singletary - 22 carries, 34 routes
Breida - 1 snap
Moss - healthy scratch
Week 16
Singletary - 55 snaps, 12 carries, 32 routes, 6 targets, 6 red zone opportunities, 18.8 PPR
Moss - 22 snaps, 3 carries, 7 routes, 1 target, 1 RZ opportunity, 3.5 PPR
Before moving on to
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Win-Win
On to CAR ⬇️⬇️
Talked last week with @DaltonGuruFF about Terrace Marshall, my fear is he's the next Bryan Edwards
Upside still there with Marshall, but I'm leaning toward dynasty SELL with him
Running routes, but not much else
Past 6 games: 87 routes, 6 targets, 1 reception
Only CAR player
I would start in Week 17 is DJ Moore, currently my WR15 in weekly projections
Past 4 weeks (averages): 10.5 targets, 5.3 rec, 72.5 yards, 13 PPR/game
Strong usage even without any TDs in this stretch
High floor option, but hasn't crested 16 PPR since Week 4
On to CHI ⬇️⬇️
A nice DFS hack is to heavily target RBs when an immobile (but semi-competent) backup QB is starting
Montgomery becomes CMC-lite when Justin Fields is not the starter
Mongtomery has two games with 9 targets this year, Week 13 and Week 16, the only 2 recent games Fields did NOT
start.
You're playing him no matter what in Week 17, but his PPR upside is definitely higher if Fields is the backup again (unlikely)
Mooney a flex and Kmet a TE streamer this week
Week 16
Mooney - 34 routes, 9 tgt, 5-57 (79 air)
Kmet - 31 routes, 5 tgt, 4-49 (35 air)
CIN🔥⬇️
The power of stacking in action 💰
Burrow - 525 pass yards, 4 pass TD, 38.1 PPR
Mixon - 18-65-1 rushing, 6 tgt, 6-70-1 receiving, 31.5 PPR
Higgins - 13 tgt, 12-194-2, 43.4 PPR
Chase - 10 tgt, 7-125-0, 19.5 PPR
Boyd - 5 tgt, 3-85-1, 17.5 PPR
Super unlucky CIN had a total
offensive dud in Week 15 before their Week 16 eruption, I'd stack Bengals in 2022 drafts, and would confidently start Burrow/Mixon/Higgins/Chase in Week 17 vs KC
Chase/Higgins both projecting as WR1 types for me this week
Uzomah a TE streamer, 15% tgt share Week 16, 6+ targets
in 3 of his past 4 games
CLE
Start Chubb, Landry a low ceiling flex. Avoid the others
Week 16
Chubb - 17 carries, 15 routes, 4 targets
D'Ernest - 4 carries, 18 routes, 2 targets
Chubb getting anything above 2 targets is a win, could continue if Hunt misses Week 17
DAL ⬇️⬇️
Amari Cooper continues to be one of the more frustrating players in fantasy
Just when his target share is slipping behind Lamb/Gallup, Week 16 happens
I'd start Dak/Zeke/Pollard/Lamb/Cooper/Schultz vs ARI Week 17
Stats below ⬇️⬇️
DAL RB Room
Zeke - 42 snaps, 9 carries, 18 routes, 1 target, 3 RZ opps
Pollard - 24 snaps, 8 carries, 10 routes, 3 targets, 3 RZ opps
DAL WR/TE
Lamb - 30 routes, 5 tgt, 4-66
Cooper - 30 rts, 11 tgt, 7-85-1
Gallup - 31 rts, 5 tgt, 2-53
Schultz - 30 rts, 9 tgt, 8-82-1
DEN ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Drew Lock in Week 16, likely Lock again Week 17
I wouldn't start any DEN WR/TE vs LAC this week
I'd rather start Javonte/Gordon over all of them, but still low ceiling/floor
Drew Lock IS a gunslinger (11 air yards per attempt Week 16), but only 22 attempts for 153 passing
yards
DEN had only 36 COMBINED passAtt + rushAtt Week 16, clearly they don't trust Lock and want their defense to do the heavy lifting
No DEN player even had more than 10 PPR in Week 16, Lock included 🥶
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Now, on to DET⬇️
Tim Boyle started this one, Amon-Ra STILL produced
Week 16
Amon-Ra: 30 routes, 11 tgt, 9-91-1 + 2-19 on the ground, 26 PPR
D'Andre Swift likely returns Week 17, likely hurts Amon-Ra's target share as Swift was Goff's security blanket, and Amon-Ra's spike weeks have aligned with
no D'Andre Swift
I'd still start Amon-Ra Week 17, but wouldn't expect double digit targets again if Swift is active
The (usually paywalled) Week 17 projections
Swift - 9-38-0.3 rushing, 8 tgt, 6-47-0.2 receiving, 17.2 PPR
Amon-Ra 9.6 tgt, 6-56-0.3 receiving, 13.4 PPR
On to GB
I'd still start AJ Dillon Week 17
Week 16 was a close timeshare with underlying usage
Jones more work, Dillon more RZ work
Jones - 33 snaps, 12 carries, 14 routes, 6 targets, 1 RZ opportunity, 13.7 PPR
Dillon - 25 snaps, 9 carries, 9 routes, 3 targets, 4 RZ opportunities
Also
MVS is off the Covid list
I'd consider him a flex vs the dreadful MIN secondary
MVS quietly has a 17% target share this year, and 7+ targets in 3 of his last 4 games (target spike lines up with Randall Cobb OUT from surgery)
HOU ⬇️⬇️
Okay, hear me out
I might start Rex Burkhead in Week 17 if David Johnson (Covid) is inactive again
HOU RB Room Week 16 vs LAC
Burkhead - 40 snaps, 22-149-2 rushing, 9 routes, 2 tgt, 5 RZ opps
Freeman - 20 snaps, 12-34 rushing, 6 routes, 0 tgt, 2 RZ opps
HOU offense is putting
up 28 points per game since Mills became the starter again
SF a strong run D and bad pass D, but Burkhead has "some" floor from volume so if you're in a pinch, he's okay in your RB2 slot
Brandin Cooks the only HOU player I'd start in all formats for Week 17
IND ⬇️⬇️
TE streamer ALERT
Jack Doyle left Week 16 after 6 snaps & 2 routes run
Mo Alie-Cox came in and was an every down TE, running 23 routes (Pittman ran 30 routes for context)
Raiders are a top-5 matchup to target for TEs, Alie-Cox had 4 targets and went 2-42 in Week 16
Also, I'd
confidently start Pittman Week 17 (if Wentz plays)
8+ targets 3 of the past 4 weeks, and his only dud in that span was vs NE when he was covered by JC Jackson and Wentz only attempted 12 passes all game
However, Wentz unvaccinated so strong chance he misses
If so, I'd sit
every IND player not named Jonathan Taylor.
Even JT needs tempered expectations Week 17
Maybe without Wentz, definitely a majority of the OLine is backups
I'd pick up the Raiders DST in case Sam Ehlinger gets his 1st career start on Sunday
JAX ⬇️⬇️
1 TD pass for Lawrence the past 8 (!) weeks
Don't start any JAX WRs in your championship matchup
However, do start Dare Ogunbowale with James Robinson OUT (achilles) and Hyde OUT (concussion)
Patriots shut down rookie QBs and struggling QBs (Lawrence is both), but we can
chase Ogunbowale's volume for Week 17
Week 16
Ogunbowale: 17-57-1 rushing, 29 routes, 4 tgt, 2-15 receiving, 15.2 PPR
Other JAX RBs: 1 snap, 1 carry
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Now, on to KC
CEH injured in Week 16, OUT Week 17
Start Darrel Williams as an RB1 type
In 5 starts this year, Darrel is averaging:
13.8 carries, 5.4 targets, 94 total yards, 0.6 TDs, and 17.8 PPR per game
LAC ⬇️
Ekeler off Covid list for Week 17, Mike Williams has a chance to return, Guyton activated from Covid list today
I'm only starting Ekeler/Allen/Williams vs DEN
Unclear Josh Palmer's role with Guyton back
Also, Justin Jackson is exactly why we chase RB targets in PPR formats
In
Week 16...
Justin Jackson - 11-64-2 rushing, 20 routes, 9 tgt, 8-98 receiving, 34.2 PPR
Even with 2 rushing TDs, Jackson had only 1 fewer PPR point from receiving than he did from rushing
On to LAR ⬇️⬇️
Stafford played poorly against a weak MIN secondary, but Cooper Kupp and OBJ still delivered fantasy points
Darrell Henderson on IR, Akers the expected backup for this game
Still expect Sony Michel to be the workhorse in Week 17 vs BAL
BAL has a strong run D and the WORST
pass D in the league right now
Weather won't be great in Baltimore, but I've seen wind projections UNDER 15 mph, so passing shouldn't be affected much
Stafford a STRONG start in Week 17, so are Kupp/OBJ & Van Jefferson a flex play
Michel a volume-based low-end RB1 type
Michel
handled 27 of 29 RB carries Week 16, had 6 of the 7 RZ touches for LAR RBs, and ran all 25 RB routes
Akers could be the lead back in the playoffs, but Michel is the workhorse for Week 17
Raiders ⬇️⬇️
Foster Moreau a good start vs IND who allow the 3rd most points to TEs this year
Also, Renfrow should feast vs their zone pass defense
Jacobs once again a total bell cow in Week 17
Zay Jones an absolute desperation flex with 7+ targets 4 of his last 5 games
MIA ⬇️⬇️
Had a Jaylen Waddle tweet go viral yesterday, that was cool, linked below
Week 17 they face TEN, a strong run D and a bad pass D
Start Waddle/Parker/Gesicki
Do not start any MIA RB in Week 17, see next tweet for Week 16 usage 🤮
Week 16 MIA RBs
Gaskin - 18 snaps, 3-10 rushing, 12 routes, 3 tgt, 1-6 receiving
Duke Johnson - 18 snaps, 13-39 rushing, 1 route
Phillip Lindsay - 20 snaps, 13-36 rushing, 5 routes
All-time gross 3-way RB committee, avoid all 3 in Week 17
MIN ⬇️⬇️
Dalvin Cook off Covid list, here's my Week 17 projection for Cook vs GB
Dalvin: 20-86-0.6 rushing, 5 tgt, 3.8-32 receiving, 19.5 PPR
Thielen OUT, here's my KJ Osborn Week 17 projection
Osborn: 6.5 tgt, 3.9-46-0.24 receiving, 9.9 PPR
Osborn had a 21% tgt share Week 16, btw
Jaire Alexander returns for GB, excited to see him defend Justin Jefferson
Low floor for Jefferson in this one, but still the sky-high ceiling with no Thielen
I anticipate a run-heavy game plan vs GB in neutral game scripts
NE ⬇️⬇️
Hunter Henry a fine TE start despite only 1 catch in Week 16, Jonnu should not be on your roster, even in dynasty
Week 16
Henry - 51 snaps, 28 routes, 6 targets
Jonnu - 23 snaps, 7 routes, 0 targets
Rhamondre off Covid list, I expect a high floor RB committee vs JAX
Saints⬇️⬇️
Ian Book was impressively bad in Week 16, Taysom/Siemian both activated off Covid list, I expect Taysom to start Week 17
Marquez Callaway actually had decent usage with Book
Callaway - 27.8% target share, 40.5% air yards share
Low volume pass attack and CAR strong against
the pass, I'd still only start Taysom/Kamara in Week 17
The Giants offense is embarrassing and doesn't deserve a tweet.
With Sterling Shepard OUT, Golladay/Toney had strong usage, and CHI's secondary is decimated, but I'd still only start them if desperate
Stats below ⬇️⬇️
Week 16
Golladay - 33 routes, 8 tgt (19.5% share), 3-22 (97 air)
Toney - 26 routes, 9 tgt (22%), 4-28 (33 air)
Slayton - 35 routes, 5 tgt (12%), 1-7 (53 air)
Going to pat myself on the back for saying Devontae Booker was a fine desperation RB2 for Week 16
NYG RB stats below ⬇️
Week 16
Saquon - 26 snaps, 15 carries, 8 routes, 1 target, 3.8 PPR
Booker - 37 snaps, 6 carries, 9 routes, 4 targets, 8.6 PPR
Saquon DNP today (ankle), and if you have other strong RB options, I'd consider sitting him Week 17
NYJ ⬇️⬇️
Crowder missed Week 16, likely OUT in Week 17
Berrios a low ceiling flex play
Week 16
Berrios - 30% tgt share, 5-37 receiving
Kroft - 25% tgt share, 3-29 receiving
Kroft a desperation TE option if Covid hits later this week
Carter/Coleman split RB work, but Carter was far
more efficient
Week 16
Carter: 43 snaps, 16-118 rushing, 10 routes, 3 tgt, 5 RZ opps, 14.4 PPR
Coleman: 20 snaps, 14-57 rushing, 4 routs, 1 tgt, 6 RZ opps, 7.1 PPR
Facing TB Week 17, I expect Carter to be heavily targeted
Have him projected for 10 carries and 6 targets
PHI ⬇️
Sanders broken hand, if Jordan Howard is healthy Week 17, he's a fine start vs WAS
If Howard misses, I'd start Boston Scott
Hurts had a season low 2 carries for 7 yards (prior season lows were 7 carries and 30 rush yards)
Devonta Smith benefitted from this, as he had his
best game since Week 10
Week 16
Smith - 25 routes, 7 tgt, 5-80-1 (91 air)
Quez - 23 routes, 3 tgt, 3-43 (43 air)
Reagor - 16 routes, 4 tgt, 2-15 (25 air)
Goedert - 14 routes, 4 tgt, 2-28 (7 air)
Not sure what was behind the Goedert usage drop, but I'd still start him vs WAS in
Week 17
Goedert's prior 2 games were both over 20 fantasy points
And, there was the highly public missed end zone pass to a wide open Goedert in Week 16 (linked)
On to PIT ⬇️⬇️
Ray-Ray McCloud has more targets (19) than Claypool (17) the past 3 games
Yet, McCloud has turned that into 11-57 receiving, while Claypool is at 12-146 receiving in that 3-game span
For a team technically in the playoff hunt, what are they doing...
Najee Harris also the
only RB who sees any touches when the game is close, don't worry about Benny Snell getting 5 carries and 1 target in Week 16
All his touches came in garbage time vs KC
SEA ⬇️⬇️
Monitor weather reports this late in the season
Heavy snow in SEA Week 16, and Rashaad Penny had another strong game
Week 16
Penny - 28 snaps, 17-135-1 rushing, 10 routes, 1 tgt
DeeJay Dallas - 22 snaps, 4-15 rushing, 15 routes, 4 tgt, 4-23 receiving
Penny has 135+ rushing
yards in his 2 healthy games this year
He gets DET Week 17, and is a strong start in the championship
SF
Jimmy G unlikely to play in Week 17, Trey Lance a very strong start vs HOU (16 !! carries in his only start Week 5)
While Lance is a great fantasy asset in his own right,
he likely hurts the SF pass-catchers
Deebo the safest option, who had 5 carries and 11 targets in Week 16 (Kittle 3 tgt, Aiyuk 5 tgt)
However, Aiyuk/Kittle don't have the floor with the carries like Deebo
In Lance's only start (Week 5 vs ARI), he had more carries (16) than
completed passes (15)
Kittle missed Week 5, but Deebo had 9 targets (31% share) and had 3-58 receiving
Aiyuk had 4 targets and went 2-32 receiving
I'd start Deebo/Kittle no matter what, but I'm sitting Aiyuk this week
HOU pass D has been surprisingly decent all season
TB ⬇️
Antonio Brown hadn't played since Week 6
Week 16
AB - 15 tgt (51.7% tgt share), 10-101 receiving
AB is a MUST START for Week 17 vs NYJ
I expect a Gronk rebound (NYJ 8th best matchup for TEs)
Ronald Jones also a MUST START vs the Jets (best team for PPR allowed to RBs)
TEN ⬇️
AJ Brown domination in Week 16
AJB - 29 routes, 16 tgt, 11-145-1 (202 air yards)
Julio - 23 routes, 1 tgt, 1-7 (4 air)
Westbrook - 15 routes, 3 tgt, 2-38 (34 air)
Rogers - 19 routes, 1 tgt, 1-3 (-2 air)
McMath - 5 routes, 1 tgt
53% tgt share, 80% air yards share for AJB 🤯
Now
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On to WAS ⬇️⬇️
Terry McLaurin has only 1 game over 59 receiving yards since Week 8
In this span, he's had 12+ PPR points 1 of 8 games
I'm sitting him in the fantasy championship
However, I am starting Antonio Gibson vs PHI (bottom third run D according to @fboutsiders)
Vs DAL in Week 16 the
game quickly got out of hand (42-7 at halftime), so Gibson only played 21 of 56 snaps
However, his usage did not suggest the toe hindered him, as he was heavily utilized when on the field
Gibson - 21 snaps, 6 carries, 10 routes, 4 targets
That's 10 carries + targets on only 21
snaps, which means Gibson was featured on roughly half his snaps
Still no McKissic and I expect WAS to hang around better against PHI
I'm anticipating 15-20 touches for Gibson, who has had 4+ targets in 4 of his past 5 games, along with 14 RZ carries in that 5-game span
Gnite
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