offensive dud in Week 15 before their Week 16 eruption, I'd stack Bengals in 2022 drafts, and would confidently start Burrow/Mixon/Higgins/Chase in Week 17 vs KC
Chase/Higgins both projecting as WR1 types for me this week
Uzomah a TE streamer, 15% tgt share Week 16, 6+ targets
in 3 of his past 4 games
CLE
Start Chubb, Landry a low ceiling flex. Avoid the others
I'd rather start Javonte/Gordon over all of them, but still low ceiling/floor
Drew Lock IS a gunslinger (11 air yards per attempt Week 16), but only 22 attempts for 153 passing
yards
DEN had only 36 COMBINED passAtt + rushAtt Week 16, clearly they don't trust Lock and want their defense to do the heavy lifting
No DEN player even had more than 10 PPR in Week 16, Lock included 🥶
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Now, on to DET⬇️
Tim Boyle started this one, Amon-Ra STILL produced
Week 16
Amon-Ra: 30 routes, 11 tgt, 9-91-1 + 2-19 on the ground, 26 PPR
D'Andre Swift likely returns Week 17, likely hurts Amon-Ra's target share as Swift was Goff's security blanket, and Amon-Ra's spike weeks have aligned with
no D'Andre Swift
I'd still start Amon-Ra Week 17, but wouldn't expect double digit targets again if Swift is active
8+ targets 3 of the past 4 weeks, and his only dud in that span was vs NE when he was covered by JC Jackson and Wentz only attempted 12 passes all game
However, Wentz unvaccinated so strong chance he misses
If so, I'd sit
every IND player not named Jonathan Taylor.
Even JT needs tempered expectations Week 17
Maybe without Wentz, definitely a majority of the OLine is backups
I'd pick up the Raiders DST in case Sam Ehlinger gets his 1st career start on Sunday
JAX ⬇️⬇️
1 TD pass for Lawrence the past 8 (!) weeks
Don't start any JAX WRs in your championship matchup
However, do start Dare Ogunbowale with James Robinson OUT (achilles) and Hyde OUT (concussion)
Patriots shut down rookie QBs and struggling QBs (Lawrence is both), but we can
1. Projected NFL Standings 2. Team Tiers and Quick Write-Ups for all 32 Teams 3. Strength of Schedule Analysis 4. Win Probabilities for each Team in all 272 Games
📌 Tip: Bookmark this post for when you have the time to dive in. I reveal my entire process in this thread (seriously).
1. Projected NFL Standings
For those that want the quick and dirty answer, this is for you.
However, I believe it's much more important to understand *how* I arrived at these win-loss numbers (keep reading)
2. Team Tiers and Quick Write-Ups for all 32 Teams
To estimate the outcome of each NFL game, it's important to understand how good each NFL team is, before factoring in their schedule.
In the next tweet, you can read my thoughts on every team, but first, a quick overview of my 7 team tiers.
Want to get caught up on the most fantasy relevant players in the 2022 NFL Draft in UNDER 5 minutes??
Order will be QB, RB, WR, then TE
Here. We. Go. ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Malik Willis (QB) - Fast/elusive (cross between Lamar/Hurts as a rusher) + huge arm. Lots of INTs + sacks taken at Liberty. Project QB that's an upside play. Most likely QB1 off the board
⬇️⬇️
Kenny Pickett (QB) - Floor play. Put it all together in Year 5 with a 42-7 TD-INT ratio and over 4,300 passing yards. Played at Pitt in ACC, has tiny hands (lots of fumbles). Not super mobile, but decent arm strength. He's a "safe" option and will go round 1
You're welcome, this should be paywalled and contains highly proprietary info
QB:
1. Malik Willis 2. Desmond Ridder 3. Matt Corral 4. Kenny Pickett 5. Sam Howell
WR is next...
WR:
1. Garrett Wilson 2. Drake London 3. Jameson Williams 4. Treylon Burks 5. Chris Olave 6. Skyy Moore 7. George Pickens 8. Jahan Dotson 9. Christian Watson 10. John Metchie 11. Jalen Tolbert 12. cont. ⬇️⬇️
haha gotcha
WRs 12-19, RBs 1-17, and TEs 1-7 are actually, in fact, paywalled