Justin McElroy Profile picture
Vancouver guy. On a break from this website. Strives to tell unique stories. https://t.co/bD9PT5oPPN

Dec 30, 2021, 11 tweets

ALL-TIME RECORD 2,944 official PCR recorded cases of #COVID19 in B.C. today, on a day where we got five days worth of data that is somewhat helpful and somewhat not, which we'll go through now.

Today's chart.

Hey look at that spiky tail on the cat! We have lots of thoughts on whether we should bring up cases at all, right?

As we talked about earlier this week, we'll be broadening out.

Here's a new chart looking at cases/million residents compared to hospitalizations.

Hospitalizations up slightly over the five days, though not as much as Quebec and Ontario so far.

This can also be seen in new hospitalization entries, where we had 107 in the last five days.

Deaths are now at lowest rolling average since the summer.

Vaccine campaign was slow over the last five days — just over 10,000 booster shots a day in B.C., and just under 850 first shots for kids 5-11.

Not surprising, given what the strategy is.

It means that in the span of a couple weeks, B.C. has gone from the top of all provinces for third dose coverage to somewhere in the middle, and likely falling further than that based on trends in Quebec and Nova Scotia.

We've been seeing this trendline accelerate for a couple weeks now, but there's now very little difference in your chances of testing positive for #COVID19 with or without two doses.

Chances of being hospitalized remains a huge gap though, and we'll keep tracking that.

(We'll also continue to ask the government about separating out health status by second AND third doses, and providing current ICU data in a format that isn't just "whenever the health minister tweets out a table")

The health authority that can't keep testing clinics open continues to see an artificial levelling of their curve, but you can see a big spike in official numbers continuing in Fraser, and clear signs of ramping up in the Interior.

If you believe the Dr. Henry's estimate today that we're currently undercounting by about 4-5 times the official PCR rate, approximately 2.5% of the entire province has gotten #COVID19 since the Omicron surge began.

What do we do with all this information?

- Be aware that your risk of contracting #COVID19 is extremely high right now

- While *your* chances of going to hospital appear to be lower, be aware of who you might pass it on to

- Keep looking at places a bit ahead of us

anyhow technically it's my week off and my friends delayed the simpsons watch so i only missed one episode but hope that was helpful!

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