Justin McElroy Profile picture
Dec 30, 2021 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
ALL-TIME RECORD 2,944 official PCR recorded cases of #COVID19 in B.C. today, on a day where we got five days worth of data that is somewhat helpful and somewhat not, which we'll go through now.

Today's chart.
Hey look at that spiky tail on the cat! We have lots of thoughts on whether we should bring up cases at all, right?

As we talked about earlier this week, we'll be broadening out.

Here's a new chart looking at cases/million residents compared to hospitalizations.
Hospitalizations up slightly over the five days, though not as much as Quebec and Ontario so far.

This can also be seen in new hospitalization entries, where we had 107 in the last five days.

Deaths are now at lowest rolling average since the summer.
Vaccine campaign was slow over the last five days — just over 10,000 booster shots a day in B.C., and just under 850 first shots for kids 5-11.

Not surprising, given what the strategy is.
It means that in the span of a couple weeks, B.C. has gone from the top of all provinces for third dose coverage to somewhere in the middle, and likely falling further than that based on trends in Quebec and Nova Scotia.
We've been seeing this trendline accelerate for a couple weeks now, but there's now very little difference in your chances of testing positive for #COVID19 with or without two doses.

Chances of being hospitalized remains a huge gap though, and we'll keep tracking that.
(We'll also continue to ask the government about separating out health status by second AND third doses, and providing current ICU data in a format that isn't just "whenever the health minister tweets out a table")
The health authority that can't keep testing clinics open continues to see an artificial levelling of their curve, but you can see a big spike in official numbers continuing in Fraser, and clear signs of ramping up in the Interior.
If you believe the Dr. Henry's estimate today that we're currently undercounting by about 4-5 times the official PCR rate, approximately 2.5% of the entire province has gotten #COVID19 since the Omicron surge began.
What do we do with all this information?

- Be aware that your risk of contracting #COVID19 is extremely high right now

- While *your* chances of going to hospital appear to be lower, be aware of who you might pass it on to

- Keep looking at places a bit ahead of us
anyhow technically it's my week off and my friends delayed the simpsons watch so i only missed one episode but hope that was helpful!

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More from @j_mcelroy

Oct 15, 2022
"Justin, once the election is over, what will you be doing?"

me: here is a pyramid of beer from the seven key municipalities we will be focusing on tonight
7. KELOWNA

It's a rematch of the 2018 election where Colin Basran won big — can he do so again in an environment where crime and growth concerns are greater than four years ago?

there were no kelowna beers in the bcl so we're going with a more geographically appropriate cider
6. LANGLEY TOWNSHIP

Can Rich Coleman make a return to politics, will controversial councillor Eric Woodward and his new party dominate — or will one of the other two plausible contenders sweet up the middle?

A 9% imperial sour is bold but by night's end you might need it
Read 9 tweets
Aug 20, 2022
it's a beautiful saturday in august

the pne has begun

it's a little cooler than the last few days

really the ideal time to enjoy the last good stretch of summer

who is ready for some charts
The rolling average of #COVID19 wastewater measurements fell in ALL FIVE Metro Vancouver treatment plants last week.

It's now about half what it was at the height of this wave.
Total hospitalizations were down about 10% in the last week, the biggest dip in more than two months, as we start to see the effects of this wave subsiding
Read 9 tweets
Aug 6, 2022
Vancouver's centre-right Non-Partisan Association has been one of the city's top two parties in 58 of its last 59 elections.

In 2018 they won the most council seats & came within 1000 votes of being elected mayor.

And then what happened?
First there was a battle for control of the board that seemed to get pretty nasty.

thebreaker.news/business/npa-t…
Among the people elected to the board were a former Rebel Media personality, and people who ran for less successful right-wing parties in the prior election.

vancouversun.com/news/local-new…
Read 18 tweets
Aug 5, 2022
who is ready for some charts
Four of Metro Vancouver's five wastewater treatment sites have seen a marked decline in #COVID19 concentration in the last three weeks, suggesting the third Omicron wave has peaked.

Outside of Langley, numbers are back to where they were in early June.
If we zoom into the last two months, we can more clearly see the slow but meaningful decline in the four sites, along with how much Northwest Langley is being an outlier at this point
Read 8 tweets
Aug 3, 2022
Today in "governments being accountable for the billion dollar organizations they oversee", a quick recap of hoping to speak to someone about the departure of BC Housing's CEO
Shayne Ramsay announced today he would be leaving BC Housing after two decades leading the organization.

It's a big, complex job, and has become bigger and more complex as time as gone on.

For a very basic metric of this, here's a chart. Image
BC Housing said Ramsay wouldn't be speaking on his departure today, or answer questions about his stated reasons for leaving.

When you go to BC Housing's media page, you're directed to phone a number that is no longer in service.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 26, 2022
Last weekend I went to the weirdest ghost town in Canada, a time machine to 1981, hundreds of kilometres from any major city.

Here's what it was like in Kitsault, British Columbia.

justinmcelroy.com/2022/07/26/vis…
RANKING THE SPOOKIEST PARTS OF CANADA'S ONLY FULLY PRESERVED 1981 GHOST TOWN

14. GYM

- great raised stage
- yes that's original gym equipment, this will only get weirder
- literally dozens of chairs stored for the school assemblies that will never happen
13. PLAYGROUNDS

- there are four of them, all overtaken by nature to various extents
- very solid wooden structures, two of which are quite interesting
- you're darn right i went down the slides
Read 19 tweets

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