1/5
Narrative is US cases will peak any day following South Africa pattern.
Keep in mind:
* South Africa is only 30% vaxxed (US 63%)
* It's young with few restrictions
* So, everyone "breathed on each other" cases went up 100x in 30 days and then peaked.
2/5
Why isn't Europe a better model for the US?
They are trying to prevent spread with restrictions/lockdowns (Dutch). So, they are dragging it out and made another new high yesterday.
EU is not willing to go 100x in 30 days like SA, so they are taking a longer time to peak.
3/5
If the US was indeed following South Africa and going to peak any day, our 7-day positive avg would be about 3M now, not ~600k.
We are trying to slow it down, and it is working!! EU leads the US by 6 weeks. If the EU peaks today, the US peaks in 2H of Feb at the earliest.
4/5
Is the EU/US just too big (population) to peak without the world peaking?
So far, the world is not peaking
5/5
My interest is economic, when is the massive loss of workdays going to peak.
How massive? In the last 10 days nearly 2.8% of the US workforce tested positive and it most likely out.
This will contribute to lost production pushing up prices (inflation). See the airlines.
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