Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Jan 09 to Jan 15 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe experiences a worrying surge in #COVID19 new cases, with increasing mortality:
- Very high mort: GR (R-eff=1.34);
- High mort:UK=1.10;IT=1.40;FR=1.28;DE=1.25;FL;
- Med mort: SP;AT=1.39;PT=1.30;DK=1.13; CH=1.25;IRL;NO=1.34;BE=1.22;LUX;
- Low mort: ICL; NL; SE.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
Three #COVID19 profiles, with alarming [high] mortality:
- Landing: [(Ukr;Poland); Slovk; Russia];
- Increasing: [Czechia=1.07]
- Surging: Bulgaria=1.30 [Croatia=1.32;Eston=1.3; Hungary=1.13; Latvia=1.24;Lithuan=1.28; Romn=1.56; Slovn=1.4; Serbia=1.52].

4/9 - Africa -
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- Surging-rising: Côte d'Ivoire=1.24; Maurit=1.75; Morocco=1.54; Mozamb=1.13; Rwanda=1.17; Tunis=1.58; Ugan=1.24; Zambia=1.11;
- Plateauing: Botsw=1.0; Gabon=0.92; Libya=1.05; Togo=1.08;
- Improving: S. Africa; Namib; Zimbabwe.

5/9 - Middle-East
Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 cases in Israel (R-eff=1.45) (77.7% received 1 dose). Kuwait=1.75; [Lebanon=1.40]; Oman=1.35; Qatar=1.67; Saudi Arabia=1.56; and UAE=1.24 (100%); with low [high] mortality.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Rapid and worrying surge in Philippines (R-eff=1.62); Mongolia=1.53; and Thailand=1.31 in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low-med mortality.
Malaysia and [Vietnam=1.07]) are plateauing [increasing], with low [high] mortality.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
India (R-eff=1.46 )and Australia=1.52 are experiencing rapid and worrying surge in their #COVID19 epid activ, with low mortality.
NZ=0.95; China=0.98; Taiwan=1.33; Japan=1.28 still in their safe zones;
South Korea and Laos are landing, low mortality.

8/9 - North America -
Canada (R-eff=1.22), rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, medium mortality, 85.2% 1 dose: red (R-eff>0.90) in all Provinces.
The USA=1.36 (74.8%), rapid and worrying surge at very high levels, very high mortality, red in all states.

9/9 - Latin America -
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 cases in the whole continent, with low-med [high] mortality:
Argentina (R-eff=1.50); [Bolivia=1.29]; Brazil=1.26; Colombia=1.49; Ecuador=1.26; Mexico=1.36; Peru=1.42; Uruguay=1.69;
- Rise again in Chile=1.30.

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0