Thread by @falsel_net

Observational analysis #Covid19 Netherlands.

Data 2021 Rivm:
Confirmed nCFRs, h/t @Datagraver:

Comparison multiple parameters #Covid19NL 2021.

Age stratified #SARSCoV2 testing data, confirmed and total Corona mortality, time-weighted fully vaccinated population at estimated 1,6% Coronavirus prevalence.

Multiple regression analysis #Covid19NL 2021.

R2 = 1 and, predictors significantly explain 95.4% of variance in observed population % mortality dependent on infection risk, vaccination coverage and age category.

Mortality% = -16.2 + 0.8 InfectionRisk% - 0.2 %Vaxx'd + 0.3 Age

Observational analysis #Covid19 Netherlands 2021.

Population % mortality (Y) was highly dependent of age.

➡️statskingdom.com/410multi_linea…

Observational analysis #Covid19 Netherlands.

Calculated full year 2021 Corona mortality for the population over 85 years old is now validated by excess deaths over 2010-2019 lower quartile mortality weeks 1 through 52.

➡️mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/

The Dutch herdimmunity strategy rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/toe…, originally planned for @ 60% Corona virus prevalence, could have rendered a total population excess mortality of 1 million citizens at a #SARSCoV2 Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 5,7% during 2021.

Data on file:

Whereas #SARSCoV2 mortality risk increases exponentially with Age, many analyses have been done after Log transformation of Fatality Rates.

re. @jburnmurdoch @FT:
ft.com/content/0f11b2…

Observational analysis 2021 Netherlands.
Multiple regression analysis #Covid19NL:
Age-stratified Fatality dependent on Infection-Risk and proportion of population fully vaccinated:
Log(Fatality%)=-4.8+0.05InfectionRisk%+0.008 %Vaxx'd+0.05Age

R2=1, explaining 99.0% of variance:

Observational analysis #Covid19 Netherlands 2021.

Log Population % mortality Y highly dependent on age:
➡️statskingdom.com/410multi_linea…

Observational analysis #Covid19 Netherlands 2021.

Model of predicted mortality in comparison to reality:

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