Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Jan 11 to Jan 17 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe experiences rise or surge in #COVID19 new cases, with increasing mortality:
- Very high mort: GR (R-eff=1.25);
- High mort:UK=1.05;IT=1.33;FR=1.23;DE=1.12;DK=1.12; SP=1.18;LUX;
- Med mort: AT=1.39;PT=1.27;CH=1.27;IRL;NO=1.29;BE=1.27;FL;
- Low mort: ICL;NL;SE.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
Two #COVID19 profiles, with alarming [high] mort:
- Plateau/Landing: [Ukr; Pol/Slovk; Russia];
- Surging-rising: Bulg=1.30 [Croat=1.31;Czech=1.12; Eston=1.3; Hung=1.36; Latv=1.22;Lith=1.29; Romn=1.48; Slovn=1.37; Serb=1.47].

4/9 - Africa -
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- Surging-rising: Maurit=1.59; Morocco=1.54; Mozambique=1.12; Rwanda=1.11; Senegal=1.51; Tunisia=1.39;
- Plateauing: Botsw=1.07; Libya=0.99; Togo=1.07;Ugand=1.06; Zambia=1.07;
- Improving: Gabon; South Africa; Namibia; Zimbabwe, high mort.

5/9 - Middle-East
Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 cases in Israel (R-eff=1.54) (77.8% received 1 dose). Kuwait=1.66; [Lebanon=1.36]; Oman=1.38; Qatar=1.64; Saudi Arabia=1.55; and UAE=1.13 (100%); with low [high] mortality.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Rapid and worrying surge in Philippines (R-eff=1.71); Mongolia=1.54; and Thailand=1.42 in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low-med mortality.
Malaysia and [Vietnam=1.08]) are plateauing [increasing], with low [high] mortality.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
India (R-eff=1.57) and Australia=1.43, rapid and worrying surge in their #COVID19 epid activ, with very low [medium] mortality.
NZ=0.97; China=0.98; Taiwan=1.27; Japan=1.25 still in their safe zones;
South Korea and Laos are landing, low mortality.

8/9 - North America -
Canada (R-eff=1.19), rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, increasing high mortality, 85.2% 1 dose: red (R-eff>0.90) in all Provinces.
The USA=1.22 (75.0%), rise at very high levels, very high mortality, red in all states.

9/9 - Latin America -
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 cases in the whole continent, with low-med [high] mortality:
Argentina (R-eff=1.44); [Bolivia=1.29]; Brazil=1.46; Chile=1.41; Colombia=1.51; Ecuador=1.23; Mexico=1.54; Peru=1.35; Uruguay=1.56.

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0