Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Jan 12 to Jan 18 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe experiences rise or surge in #COVID19 new cases, with increasing mortality:
- Very high mort: GR (R-eff=1.22);
- High mort:UK=0.99;IT=1.29;FR=1.23;DE=1.17;DK=1.11; SP=1.18;LUX;PT=1.25;FL;
- Med mort: AT=1.43;IRL;NO=1.24;BE=1.27;SE;
- Low mort: ICL;NL;CH=1.27.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
Two #COVID19 profiles, with alarming [high] mort:
- Plateau/Landing: [Ukr; Pol/Slovk; Russia];
- Surging-rising: Bulg=1.33 [Croat=1.21;Czech=1.07; Eston=1.25; Hung=1.31; Latv=1.24;Lith=1.27; Romn=1.60; Slovn=1.35; Serb=1.44].

4/9 - Africa -
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- Surging-rising: Maurit=1.47; Morocco=1.42; Mozambique=1.09; ; Senegal=1.47; Tunisia=1.50;
- Plateauing: Botsw=1.07; Libya=0.94; Togo=1.04;Ugand=1.05; Zambia=0.95;
- Improving: Gabon; Rwanda; South Africa; Namibia; Zimbabwe, high mort.

5/9 - Middle-East
Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 cases in Israel (R-eff=1.51) (78.0% received 1 dose); Kuwait=1.58; [Lebanon=1.33]; Oman=1.36; Qatar=1.68; Saudi Arabia=1.51; and UAE=1.11 (100%), with low [high] mortality.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Rapid and worrying surge in Philippines (R-eff=1.64); Mongolia=1.48; and Thailand=1.34 in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low-med mortality.
Malaysia=0.99; Laos=1.01; and [Vietnam=1.04]) are plateauing, with low [high] mortality.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
India (R-eff=1.52); Japan=1.64 and Australia=1.40, rapid and worrying surge in their #COVID19 epid activ, with very low [medium] mortality.
NZ=1.05; China=1.02; Taiwan=1.26; still in their safe zones;
South Korea is landing, low mortality.

8/9 - North America -
Canada (R-eff=1.17), rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, increasing high mortality, 85.6% 1 dose: red (R-eff>0.90) in all Provinces.
The USA=1.19 (75.1%), rise at very high levels, very high mortality, red in all states but Tennessee.

9/9 - Latin America -
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 cases in the whole continent, with low-med [high] mortality:
Argentina (R-eff=1.41); [Bolivia=1.28]; Brazil=1.49; Chile=1.41; Colombia=1.40; Ecuador=1.22; Mexico=1.30; Peru=1.34; Uruguay=1.49.

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0