Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Professor of demography at UCT; cricket; politics. Analyst of South African Covid testing data and excess deaths (2020-)

Jan 12, 11 tweets

Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess mortality in South Africa, through 8Jan22, released.
290 000 excess deaths since 3May20. 3 150 in the most recent week (down from 3 300 the previous week). Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…

Nationally, excess natural mortality declined slightly in the most recent week: from 39.9% above expected to 37% above expected. Declines in every province other than Western Cape (up from 31 to 49% above expected) and Mpumalanga. Gauteng down to 7% above expected.

By age, excess mortality stabilised among those 70-79 and 80+; down in other groups

The effect of the late reporting of official Covid deaths on 6Jan22 is visible in the plot of excess deaths and reported deaths

Unnatural deaths continue tracking very closely to the expected level.

Also today, the most recent @nicd_sa report on testing for SARS-CoV-2. Report available here: nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…. Proportions testing positive down in every province; nationally down from 31% to 24%; but with a slower descent than ascent.

At a district level, 99 districts had a proportion testing positive (PTP) in excess of 30%, down from 127 last week.

By age, PTP largely flat, but the end of the waves in every province at all ages is now evident.

The national evolution of PTP by age in the 4th wave is shown below; something to watch, though, is that the pace of decline may be faster amongst older segments of the population (when normalised and offset)

Combining the testing and excess deaths data, the very different pattern / decoupling of excess deaths and cases in the wave persists.

However, as noted last week, while deaths have remained low, hospitalisations have been lower than in previous waves, but not by as much as the deaths recorded in DatCov (data from sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za)

Shorter durations of admission, and fewer cases outside of general wards (or requiring ventilation), have certainly helped prevent an overburdening of the health system.

As always; stay well; and stay safe.

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