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Tom Moultrie Profile picture
@tomtom_m
Jan 12, 2022 • 11 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
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Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess mortality in South Africa, through 8Jan22, released.
290 000 excess deaths since 3May20. 3 150 in the most recent week (down from 3 300 the previous week). Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Nationally, excess natural mortality declined slightly in the most recent week: from 39.9% above expected to 37% above expected. Declines in every province other than Western Cape (up from 31 to 49% above expected) and Mpumalanga. Gauteng down to 7% above expected.
By age, excess mortality stabilised among those 70-79 and 80+; down in other groups
The effect of the late reporting of official Covid deaths on 6Jan22 is visible in the plot of excess deaths and reported deaths
Unnatural deaths continue tracking very closely to the expected level.
Also today, the most recent @nicd_sa report on testing for SARS-CoV-2. Report available here: nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…. Proportions testing positive down in every province; nationally down from 31% to 24%; but with a slower descent than ascent.
At a district level, 99 districts had a proportion testing positive (PTP) in excess of 30%, down from 127 last week.

By age, PTP largely flat, but the end of the waves in every province at all ages is now evident.
The national evolution of PTP by age in the 4th wave is shown below; something to watch, though, is that the pace of decline may be faster amongst older segments of the population (when normalised and offset)
Combining the testing and excess deaths data, the very different pattern / decoupling of excess deaths and cases in the wave persists.
However, as noted last week, while deaths have remained low, hospitalisations have been lower than in previous waves, but not by as much as the deaths recorded in DatCov (data from sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za)
Shorter durations of admission, and fewer cases outside of general wards (or requiring ventilation), have certainly helped prevent an overburdening of the health system.

As always; stay well; and stay safe.

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More from @tomtom_m

Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Dec 14, 2022
Weekly excess deaths in South Africa. A final thread. The report released by the @MRCza and @UCT_news collaboration on excess deaths in South Africa in the week to 10Dec22 was released today. The report is here:samrc.ac.za/reports/report… /1
The report is the last of 138 reports issued weekly since 30Mar20. The first report covered the period to 15Mar20, the second (on 6Apr20) the period to 31Mar20. 39 weekly reports were issued in 2020; 50 in 2021; and 49 in 2022. /2
In addition to providing data in machine readable format since 23Jun20, the collaboration has produced many technical notes, methodological reports, and explainers. /3
Read 23 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
Apologies for the delay in the weekly deaths and testing summaries - reports from @MRCza and @nicd_sa now released! (Delay due to late release of testing data).
In the week to 3Dec22, 450 excess natural deaths were recorded, bringing the total since 3May20 to 338 300.
The report is available here: The excess deaths report is here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…. In the week to 3Dec22, natural deaths were 5.6% above expected, ranging from -7.6% in NC to 15.1% in EC.
As can be seen, little signal (and quite a lot of noise) in the data for some time now. Unnatural deaths continue to follow the expected patterns and levels
Read 6 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jul 27, 2022
Latest weekly @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released. 801 excess natural deaths in the week to 23Jul22; 326 000 since 3May20. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Observed natural deaths for the week were 8.7% above that expected, very slightly higher than the upper prediction bound. Provincially, p-scores range from 1.8% in NW to 24.5% in NC. (only NC and EC - 20.3% -) exceed 10% above expected.
Excess deaths are low in (almost) every age group, are negligible in and are at much lower levels than in previous waves of infection. p-scores in every age group are less than 25%,and are negative between ages 20 and 59.
Read 6 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jul 20, 2022
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_News report on excess deaths in South Africa released. Issues in the data received from Home Affairs have led to a caution being issued with this week's data. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
325k excess deaths between 3May20 and 16Jul22. While the increment in the week to 16Jul22 is low, the caution above should be borne in mind and results should not be over-interpreted; the correction will come through in due course.
Natural deaths in the week were 4.8% higher than expected (see caveat), ranging from -13.5% (NW) to +23.8% (NC).
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jul 13, 2022
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa is out; covering the week to 9Jul22. 325k excess natural deaths since 3May20; 1100 in the most recent week. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess natural deaths of those under age 60 back to the predicted levels; those over 60 still somewhat above. Nationally, natural deaths were 12.0% above expected with most provinces close to or within the prediction range.
The p-score by age band shows that excess mortality concentrated in those aged 60+. (The odd pattern of those under 5 may reflect an earlier RSV season than anticipated, with excess mortality in past months, now reverting to baseline).
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jun 29, 2022
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa, covering the week to 25Jun22, released. 322419 excess natural deaths since 3May20, 1112 in the week to 25June22, the lowest since 3-9April22. Report --> samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Natural deaths in the week to 25Jun22 were 11.6% above expected, ranging from 20.1% in KZN to -3.4% in the Western Cape.
Unnatural deaths continue to stick closely to the expected numbers.
Read 7 tweets

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