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Michael McDonough Profile picture
Michael McDonough
@M_McDonough
Chief Economist, Financial Products at Bloomberg LP (*ECAN Mastermind) mmcdonough10@bloomberg.net *views are my own*

Jan 14, 2022, 6 tweets

U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Dropped 1.9% MoM in December (forecast was -0.1%), What Led the Drop? Online Sales (non-store retailers)! Take a Look:

Here are the Retail Sales levels:

Percent of total Retail Sales (Non-Store Retailers & Department Stores):

One argument is Christmas shoppers buying early over supply chain concerns, here is the number of weekly stores mentioning "supply chain". It spikes mid-October:

I still find December's sharp decline hard to explain.

Noticing that Non-Store Retailers took a similar MoM% drop in December 2020 and December 2018 and bounced back strong in January:

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