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Michael McDonough Profile picture
@M_McDonough
Jan 14, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Dropped 1.9% MoM in December (forecast was -0.1%), What Led the Drop? Online Sales (non-store retailers)! Take a Look: Image
Here are the Retail Sales levels: Image
Percent of total Retail Sales (Non-Store Retailers & Department Stores): Image
One argument is Christmas shoppers buying early over supply chain concerns, here is the number of weekly stores mentioning "supply chain". It spikes mid-October: Image
I still find December's sharp decline hard to explain.
Noticing that Non-Store Retailers took a similar MoM% drop in December 2020 and December 2018 and bounced back strong in January: Image

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More from @M_McDonough

Michael McDonough Profile picture
Aug 27
(1/5) A look at what is driving the US Unemployment Rate through ECAN<Go>:

Contribution to the US Unemployment Rate from Permanent Job Losers & those Completing Temporary Jobs: Image
(2/5) Contribution to the US Unemployment Rate from people on Temporary Layoffs: *I think this one is notable* Image
(3/5) Contribution to the US Unemployment Rate from Job Leavers: Image
Read 5 tweets
Michael McDonough Profile picture
Nov 29, 2023
I just quickly used DS<Go> to conduct a Beige Book-style analysis on U.S. consumers, focusing on insights from recent earnings call transcripts of S&P 500 companies: (This is a very very small sample of the results)
"As lower-income consumers responded to the accumulated impact of inflation and reduced government benefits, we saw a notable pullback in spending, particularly in higher-margin discretionary categories." -Rick Dreiling, Chairman/CEO Dollar Tree
"...consumers are still spending, but pressures like higher interest rates, resumption of student loan repayments, increased credit card debt, and reduced savings rates, have left them with less discretionary income, forcing them to make trade-offs..." Brian Cornell, CEO Target
Read 14 tweets
Michael McDonough Profile picture
Nov 8, 2022
(1/5) Election Day Fodder
& a good excuse to use this app I built ages ago

Comparing the Democratic Large Cap Core ETF $DEMZ vs. the Point Bridge America First EFT $MAGA

Firstly, the two ETFs are in fact quite different. They are both also pretty small: Image
(2/5) Despite the differences in composition, the ETFs are loosely correlated with an R^2 of 0.72: Image
(3/5) Relative to each other DEMZ is most overweight Technology, Consumer Staples, and Communications, while MAGA is most overweight Industrials, Energy and Utilities: Image
Read 5 tweets
Michael McDonough Profile picture
Nov 7, 2022
The Bank of England just updated October mortgage rates , the 2Y fixed rate went to 6.01% from 4.17%.
Applying this rate to the nation-wide average house price, and assuming a 15% down payment, your monthly payment would be £1,369 up from £764 at the start of the year: {ECAN}
U.K. mortgage-to-income ratio: {ECAN}
Contributions to the 1Y change in the UK mortgage-to-income ratio. Mostly the surge in interest rates: {ECAN<GO>}
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonough Profile picture
Oct 21, 2022
(1/2) There has been a significant swing in which party is expected to control the Senate with just 18 days left until the midterm elections. To track this we've added a new US Election section on {ECAN<GO>}.
(2/4) Control of the House is becoming even less competitive: {ECAN<GO>}
(3/4) Generic Republican Congressional candidates are doing increasingly better than a generic Democrat candidate: {ECAN<GO>}
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonough Profile picture
Aug 9, 2022
(1/3) Starting to think about potential labor hoarding... In that vein, here is a chart showing the change in EPS estimates for the Russell 3K vs. the change in the US Unemployment Rate since 1996: (pretty self-explanatory)
(2/3) I was actually somewhat surprised to learn that Russell 3K companies employ nearly 40 million people (so it is a fairly representative index, admittedly though not all of them are located in the US)
(3/3) I f curious, here is the breakout of Russell 3K employment by company and sector:
Read 5 tweets

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