Thread by @miamalan

[Thread] 1. The LATEST on #Omicron in SA

@Dr_Groome of @nicd_sa:
1. Almost 99% of all new #COVID19 cases in SA now = #Omicron (Omicron = red on table, see Nov/Dec)
2. Extremely low proportions of other variants are currently detected through sequencing

2. @Dr_Groome:
1. SA reached its #Omicron peak on 15 Dec (22,588 new #COVID19 cases on that day)
2. Reported cases = only +/- 10% of the actual cases
3. There's been a small increase in new cases over Xmas, but we have seen persistent decreases in terms of 7 day moving averages

3. @Dr_Groome:
1. Previous waves were longer and waves started and ended a few weeks apart in different provinces. With #Omicron the wave is much steeper and provinces followed each other much quicker
2. Gauteng (where SA's Omicron wave started) has exited its 4th (Omicron) wave

4. @Dr_Groome:
1. Under 10 year olds: incidence = lowest out of all age groups, so while under 5 incidence = slightly higher than in previous waves, still = low incidence
2. 20-39: Incidence higher than in other waves
3. 60+: Incidence decreasing in last 2 waves (vax started)

5. @Dr_Groome:
1. Gauteng = exited 4th wave
2. All provinces now show a downward trend in new #COVID19 cases

6. @Dr_Groome:
1. Average national test positivity rate for week of 2 Jan = 24.4% (6.5% down from previous week).
2. + test rate on 13 Jan = 14.3%
3. Down slope of the #Omicron wave won't be as steep as the up slope (so infections decreasing slower than what they had increased)

7. @Dr_Groome:
1. Test positivity rates in all provinces have been decreasing over the past two weeks
2. Country maps (below): Look at how the test + rates in the northern and eastern parts of SA have decreased (4th map)

8. @Dr_Groome:
1. The graph shows the 7 day moving averages for test + rates
2. GP = 1st province to reach a peak (40% test + rate at peak, now at about 17%)
3. There is now a consistent decrease in + rates in all provinces

9. @Dr_Groome:
1. At the beginning of #Omicron the 20-29 age group had the highest test + rates, also high rates in 30-39, but those peaked in early Dec
2. Older age groups increased later
3. Peaks in different age groups = similar test + rates
3. All age groups = decreasing

10. @Dr_Groome:
Summary:
1. #Omicron infections = decreasing at a slower rate than what they increased
2. Omicron waves in all 9 provinces have peaked
3. Although #COVID19 cases among younger people were more common at the beginning of the wave, that changed as the wave moved on