Biden confirms this reporting and essentially greenlights any Russian operation against Ukraine short of a full invasion:
"It depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do or not do"
Biden says any Russian attempt to cut off energy supplies to Europe would be "biting your nose off to spite your face" given that it's 45% of their income.
Biden says Russian "banks will not be able to deal in dollars" if it invades, and that while it will win the war/occupy Ukraine, it will suffer terribly.
"Militarily, they have overwhelming superiority...but they'll pay a stiff price... near term, medium term, and long term"
Finland and the US are both being pretty clear that the former will not be joining NATO. I assume the public statement of this is another bone to Russia. Why not let them sweat?
Biden says Putin laments his loss of Empire and is trying to find his place between China and the West, and that despite Russia technically having everything going for it and the US being willing to give Russia what it says it wants, Putin is going to invade, anyway..
Biden rules out near-term [meaning indefinitely] Ukrainian membership of NATO [as the US and Europe have for decades]:
"There's room to work if he wants to do that, but I think as usual he's going to...I probably shouldn't go any further."
While implicitly confirming that Ukraine is barred from NATO, Biden rejects all other demands and says the US will increase its presence across the entire Russian border if it invades.
Asked to clarify whether he's greenlighting Russian operations short of invasion, Biden doubles down and says yes, because "transatlantic unity" uber alles and there's no agreement in NATO to punish Russia for anything short of invasion [and even that].
Biden backtracks and says he thinks Putin hasn't made up his mind on precisely what he wants to do yet in Ukraine.
He also says the senior Russian officials the US has been engaging with in different fora don't seem to know any better than the US does.
Biden says he wants a summit with Putin and that a full invasion of Ukraine would be "the most consequential thing that's happened...since World War II".
Biden also confirms he is concerned that an invasion could spiral and spark a war with NATO.
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