Biden says any Russian attempt to cut off energy supplies to Europe would be "biting your nose off to spite your face" given that it's 45% of their income.
Biden says Russian "banks will not be able to deal in dollars" if it invades, and that while it will win the war/occupy Ukraine, it will suffer terribly.
"Militarily, they have overwhelming superiority...but they'll pay a stiff price... near term, medium term, and long term"
Finland and the US are both being pretty clear that the former will not be joining NATO. I assume the public statement of this is another bone to Russia. Why not let them sweat?
Biden says Putin laments his loss of Empire and is trying to find his place between China and the West, and that despite Russia technically having everything going for it and the US being willing to give Russia what it says it wants, Putin is going to invade, anyway..
Biden rules out near-term [meaning indefinitely] Ukrainian membership of NATO [as the US and Europe have for decades]:
"There's room to work if he wants to do that, but I think as usual he's going to...I probably shouldn't go any further."
While implicitly confirming that Ukraine is barred from NATO, Biden rejects all other demands and says the US will increase its presence across the entire Russian border if it invades.
Asked to clarify whether he's greenlighting Russian operations short of invasion, Biden doubles down and says yes, because "transatlantic unity" uber alles and there's no agreement in NATO to punish Russia for anything short of invasion [and even that].
Biden backtracks and says he thinks Putin hasn't made up his mind on precisely what he wants to do yet in Ukraine.
He also says the senior Russian officials the US has been engaging with in different fora don't seem to know any better than the US does.
Biden says he wants a summit with Putin and that a full invasion of Ukraine would be "the most consequential thing that's happened...since World War II".
Biden also confirms he is concerned that an invasion could spiral and spark a war with NATO.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Seems the "Georgian Legion" that basically kicked off what became NAFO was a scam, one I promoted and to which I donated and got my friends to donate significant amounts of money.
.@jonathanchait: "They are treating apologias for Hamas as a factually or logically flawed application of left-wing ideals. I believe...that Hamas defenders are applying their own principles correctly. The problem is the principles themselves." nymag.com/intelligencer/…
@jonathanchait: "The illiberal left believes treating everybody equally...merely serves to maintain existing structures of power. It follows...that the legitimacy of a tactic can only be assessed with reference to whether it is being used by the oppressor or the oppressed."
@jonathanchait: '“Decolonization”...has a model of the world in which conflicts are analyzed as a struggle pitting settler-colonist-Europeans, who are evil, against native/indigenous/BIPOC people...[It] does not leave room to judge the morality of any methods.'
"Wagner...has also released several horrifying snuff films and images of executions, mutilations and beheadings that would make Islamic State blush." archive.md/2023.06.12-060…
"RIM and Wagner are the Russian equivalent of...Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Hezbollah. The former two are...well-known terrorist fronts created by [Pakistan]...while the latter is essentially the Lebanese branch of Iran’s [IRGC]." aijac.org.au/op-ed/barbaric…
'Australia is not bound by whatever considerations are underlying the [US] reluctance. Home Affairs should act quickly on...Paterson’s letter and demonstrate that Australia sees these NRVE groups for what they are...“horrible terrorist organisations”.'
14th report of the UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team on ISKP: "At least five new [ISKP training camps] built in 2022. The group has created a network of sleeper cells in the centre of the country...elsewhere [ISKP] operate in cells of 5 to 15 people."
"There had also been a targeted campaign to recruit TTP members, Uighurs and ethnic Tajik and Uzbek minorities, which prompted reports of [IMU] units secretly pledging allegiance [IS] while remaining under the Taliban umbrella and biding their time."
"Attacks against high-profile Taliban figures raised [ISKP] morale, prevented defections and boosted recruitment, including from within the Taliban’s ranks."
A fascinating account in @newlinesmag about Iran's all-expenses-paid, Orwellian recruitment centres in Qom masquerading as religious institutions, where it's struggle sessions, lies, spies, antisemitism, conspiracy, and Khomeini worship 24/7. newlinesmag.com/first-person/h…
"The biggest taboo of all was Khamenei...We would never, ever speak about him, his role in Iran or the Iranian regime. It was really strange to see his Orwellian portrait everywhere without being able to speak about him."