Biden says any Russian attempt to cut off energy supplies to Europe would be "biting your nose off to spite your face" given that it's 45% of their income.
Biden says Russian "banks will not be able to deal in dollars" if it invades, and that while it will win the war/occupy Ukraine, it will suffer terribly.
"Militarily, they have overwhelming superiority...but they'll pay a stiff price... near term, medium term, and long term"
Finland and the US are both being pretty clear that the former will not be joining NATO. I assume the public statement of this is another bone to Russia. Why not let them sweat?
Biden says Putin laments his loss of Empire and is trying to find his place between China and the West, and that despite Russia technically having everything going for it and the US being willing to give Russia what it says it wants, Putin is going to invade, anyway..
Biden rules out near-term [meaning indefinitely] Ukrainian membership of NATO [as the US and Europe have for decades]:
"There's room to work if he wants to do that, but I think as usual he's going to...I probably shouldn't go any further."
While implicitly confirming that Ukraine is barred from NATO, Biden rejects all other demands and says the US will increase its presence across the entire Russian border if it invades.
Asked to clarify whether he's greenlighting Russian operations short of invasion, Biden doubles down and says yes, because "transatlantic unity" uber alles and there's no agreement in NATO to punish Russia for anything short of invasion [and even that].
Biden backtracks and says he thinks Putin hasn't made up his mind on precisely what he wants to do yet in Ukraine.
He also says the senior Russian officials the US has been engaging with in different fora don't seem to know any better than the US does.
Biden says he wants a summit with Putin and that a full invasion of Ukraine would be "the most consequential thing that's happened...since World War II".
Biden also confirms he is concerned that an invasion could spiral and spark a war with NATO.
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"According to a U.N. report seen by New Lines, at least two meetings between the Houthis and al-Shabab were held in July and September 2024." newlinesmag.com/spotlight/a-pa…
If India and Pakistan can avoid a nuclear exchange, anyone can, and North Korea, e.g., will nuke South Korea (and use biological and chemical weapons) in the event of conflict regardless of the South's possession of nukes.
Nukes aren't a magical answer, but if you've got the infrastructure, know-how, and money, unclear to me why you wouldn't at least become a nuclear threshold state as a theoretical deterrent to nuclear coercion/threats.
Rules are different for nuclear powers, and everybody knows it [Pakistan has been treated with kid gloves for decades despite its behaviour, partially for this reason].
Seems the "Georgian Legion" that basically kicked off what became NAFO was a scam, one I promoted and to which I donated and got my friends to donate significant amounts of money.
Al-Qaeda (Al-Shabaab) has reversed all Somali military gains in central Somalia over the last 2 years and is working with the IRGC (Houthis) to enhance capabilities.
"Ahmed said the Houthis...aim to establish a new front in the Indian Ocean where al-Shabaab can receive advanced missiles and drones. He said the Houthis have already sent three engineers to al-Shabaab...to help build sophisticated weapons and bombs."
.@jonathanchait: "They are treating apologias for Hamas as a factually or logically flawed application of left-wing ideals. I believe...that Hamas defenders are applying their own principles correctly. The problem is the principles themselves." nymag.com/intelligencer/…
@jonathanchait: "The illiberal left believes treating everybody equally...merely serves to maintain existing structures of power. It follows...that the legitimacy of a tactic can only be assessed with reference to whether it is being used by the oppressor or the oppressed."
@jonathanchait: '“Decolonization”...has a model of the world in which conflicts are analyzed as a struggle pitting settler-colonist-Europeans, who are evil, against native/indigenous/BIPOC people...[It] does not leave room to judge the morality of any methods.'