Thread by @therealarod1984

1/20 Texas C19 Update: MLK Weekend Rebound

THREAD:

* Hospitalization numbers rebounded yesterday, but continue their inevitable bend towards peak today
* Census still tracking for 1/25 7DMA peak
* Testing still gone wild
* Cases decline, but likely one last peak coming
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1/n

1/20 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/10:
* Pos% @ 32.28%, testing @ 217K/day a record
* Positive tests @ 70K/day
* Pos% peak I'm estimating ~1/11 wont know for sure until Monday
* We start watching for signs of testing peak

2/n

1/20 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by county
* Case 7DMA in slight decline, but still ~ 47K
* Still believe we have one more new case peak left. Based on past history, positive test conversion to cases as of 1/10, & dependent on when testing peaks in 2/n
.
3/n

1/20 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Even with a rebound yesterday in Admits, rate of growth declined from 12% on Mon to 9% today. Nose over imminent
* SETRAC Admit #s not out yet
* Houston Census has fully nosed over. Dallas is a few days out
* AUS & SAT nearly there as well
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4/n

1/20 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* % beds tagged as Covid @ 20.7%
* Census growth down to 17%, not worried about my prediction not making of 1/25 7DMA peak (originally 1/26).
* 13K 7DMA census peak is going to be pretty close. Might be 13.3K like I originally projected.

5/n

1/20 Hospitalizations - Part 3

* ICU census at 2614
* Vents at 1494
* A post MLK rebound bumps the numbers up some but these will nose over a few days after general census. They are already starting a crest.
* These numbers will be significantly lower than 2020 Winter

6/n
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1/18 Conclusion

Peak is about here folks. By this time next week everything will be starting a steep decline. Cases might have one last gasp as case reporting is so laggy and batchy.

Otherwise Omicron is about to make its exit stage left. Buh Bye
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7/end