Thread by @robmangunsong

🚨#GW4 Round of 16 Differential Picks🚨

🧵After the 24 teams have battled it out in the group stage, now we are entering the next round. I will do a short preview of the knockout stage & just like for previous GW'2, give you some differential picks.

#AFCON2021

🔷Facts🔷

Big tournaments are always full of surprises. One of the big favorites and reigning champions Algeria is eliminated.

1st time participant Gambia & Comoros have survived the group stage.

Of the 68 goals scored so far, 10 are penalties (14.7%)

[1]

🔷Fixtures 🔷
23/01
17:00 BFA🇧🇫 - GAB🇬🇦
20:00 NGA🇳🇬 - TUN🇹🇳

24/01
17:00 GUI🇬🇳 - GAM🇬🇲
20:00 CMR🇨🇲 - COM🇰🇲

25/01
17:00 SEN🇸🇳 - CPV🇨🇻
20:00 MAR🇲🇦 - MWI🇲🇼

26/01
17:00 CIV🇨🇮 - EGY🇪🇬
20:00 MLI🇲🇱 - EQG🇬🇶

#TotalEnergiesAFCON2021 #roundof16

[2]

According to @OptaAnalyst based on their algorithm these 5 teams have higher than 10% chance to win #TotalEnergiesAFCON2021 :
Nigeria 17%
Morocco 15.7%
Senegal 15.7%
Egypt 10.2%
Ivory Coast 10.0%

[3]

🔷TIERS OF TEAMS🔷

I've listed the teams in tiers based on
1. Performance
2. Stats
3. Current situation (suspension, injury, illness)
4. Road to final,

TIER 1: ✅all. 🎯3 players
TIER 2: ✅2-3. 🎯2-3
TIER 3: ✅1-2. 🎯1-2
TIER 4: ✅0-1. 🎯0-1

[4]

🔷TIER 1🔷
🎯3 players

Cameroon🇨🇲 :
Comoros 🇰🇲➡️Guinea🇬🇳/Gambia🇬🇲

Nigeria🇳🇬:
Tunisia🇹🇳➡️Burkina Faso🇧🇫/Gabon🇬🇦

Senegal🇸🇳 :
Cape Verde🇨🇻➡️Mali🇲🇱 - Equatorial Guinea🇬🇶

[5]

🔷TIER 2🔷
🎯2-3 players

Morocco🇲🇦:
Malawi🇲🇼➡️Ivory Coast🇨🇮/Egypt🇪🇬

Mali🇲🇱:
Equatorial Guinea🇬🇶➡️Senegal🇸🇳/Cape Verde🇨🇻

Ivory Coast🇨🇮:
Egypt🇪🇬➡️Morocco🇲🇦/Malawi🇲🇼

[6]

🔷TIER 3🔷
🎯1-2 players

Burkina Faso🇧🇫
Egypt 🇪🇬
Guinea 🇬🇳
Gambia 🇬🇲
Tunisia🇹🇳
Gabon🇬🇦

🔷TIER 4🔷
🎯0-1 player

Equatorial Guinea🇬🇶
Cape Verde🇨🇻
Malawi🇲🇼
Comoros🇰🇲

[7]

With 8 transfers in each of the next rounds, you can choose to attack the match-ups each round much better and go for differential picks or punts.
After having a max of 3 players from each team in until the Rd of 16, we can have 4 max in QF, 8 in SF and 12 in final.

[8]

🔷TIER 1⃣ PICKS🔷

Cameroon:
🇨🇲Moumi Ngamaleu - MF - 8.5 - 3% - 16 points (5.3 ppg)

1🅰️| 6 KP | 3 CC

The right winger plays an integral part of 🇨🇲's attack.
1🅰️with team high 1.16 xA in open play, 2nd in team with 3 CC's.
6 key passes, 14 duels won and 1 shot on target.

[9]

🔷TIER 1⃣ PICKS🔷

Nigeria:
🇳🇬Taiwo Awoniyi - FW - 7.5 - 4% - 10 (5 ppg)

1⚽️| 9 shots | 4 SoT | 1 CC

Played twice & rested in 3rd, making his
team high 4 SoT's & 2.38 xG more impressive, involved in 2.55 sequences that led to a shot or goal (total xG). 3rd with 0.42 xA.

[10]

🔷TIER 1⃣ PICKS🔷

Senegal:
🇸🇳Saliou Ciss - DF - 5.5 - 1% - 16 (8 ppg)

3 KP | 1 CC | 14 DW | 6 CBI

LB played twice after missing1st game because of covid, making his 1 CC, 3 KP's and 0.21 xA (3rd in team) look pretty good.
🇸🇳only faced 3 SoT's with 0.8 xGoTC.

[10]

🔷TIER 2⃣ PICKS🔷

Morocco:
🇲🇦Selim Amallah - MF - 7.1 - 3% - 18 (6 ppg)

1⚽️| 1🅰️| 3 KP | 2 CC
3rd in team with 5 shots (1 SoT)
1.64 total xG is 3rd in team
Facing Malawi team that faced 12 SoT's (2nd most behind Comoros' 17) with 3.7 xGoTC (2nd).

[11]

🔷TIER 2⃣ PICKS🔷

Mali:
🇲🇱Massadio Haïdara - DF - 5.1 - 3% - 20 (6.7 ppg)

1⚽️| 3 Shots | 1 SoT | 10 CBI |

LB scored the only open goal for Mali, and besides Koné's 3 pen goals.
3rd in team with 0.46 xG in open play.
🇲🇱has faced only 5 SoT's with 0.8 xGoTC.

[12]

🔷TIER 2⃣ PICKS🔷

Ivory Coast:
🇨🇮Ibrahim Sangaré - MF - 5.1 - 4% - 20 (6.7 ppg)

1⚽️| 1🅰️ | 7 KP | | 6 CC | 19 DW |

0.69 xG is 3rd in team.
6 CC leads team.
1.54 total XG 4th in team.
The energetic midfielder plays all over the place for 🇨🇮

[13]

🔷TIER 3⃣PICKS🔷

BFA
🇧🇫Bertrand Traoré - MF - 8.0 - 6% - 10 (5 ppg)
1🅰️ | 5 shots | 2 SoT | | 2 KP | 15 DW

EGY
🇪🇬Mostafa Mohamed - FW - 8.5 - 5% - 7 (2.3 ppg)
9 shots | 4 SoT | | 0.43 xG

GUI
🇬🇳I Sylla - DF - 5.5 - 5% - 22 (7.3 ppg)
1⚽️| 2 CS | 5 KP | .62 xG | .42 xA

[14]

🔷TIER 3⃣PICKS🔷

Gambia
🇬🇲Musa Barrow - MF - 7.6 - 3% - 21 (7 ppg)
1⚽️| 2🅰️ | 11 shots | 4 SoT | | 4 KP

Tunisia
🇹🇳 TBC - too many uncertainties because of COVID cases

Gabon
🇬🇦Jim Allevinah - MF - 6.2 - 6% - 22 (7.3 ppg)
2⚽️| 1🅰️ | 6 shots | 2 SoT | | 0.81 total xG

[15]

🔷TIER 4⃣PICKS🔷

Equatorial Guinea
🇬🇶Iván Edu - FW - 5.5 - 1% - 16 (5.3 ppg)
1🅰️ | 9 shots | 1 SoT | | 6 KP | 2.63 TxG

Cape Verde
🇨🇻Garry Rodrigues - MF - 6.5 - 0% - 14 (4.7 ppg)
1⚽️| 1🅰️ | 5 shots | 2 SoT | | 0.79 xA | 2.12 TxG

[16]

🔷TIER 4⃣PICKS🔷

Malawi
🇲🇼Gabadinho Mhango - FW - 6.0 - 1% - 16 (8 ppg)
2⚽️| 8 shots | 2 SoT | | 1.28 xG | 1.93 TxG

Comoros
🇰🇲Ahmed Mogni - MF - 5.5 - 0% - 15 ( 5 ppg)
2⚽️| 4 shots | 2 SoT | | 0.89 xG | 1.07 TxG

[17]

With the picks leaning more towards attackers, for defense (DF & GK) I would like to recommend you get 1-2 players from these teams for this GW:
Top priority : Mali ; Senegal ; Morocco
Followed by: Cameroon ; Burkina Faso

[18]

That's it from me.
I hope you enjoy this 🧵and can use it as a tool to build your team for #GW4.

Good luck!

Don't forget to follow these accounts for more #AFCON2021 contents:

@FPLfield
@RagnarFPL
@TheFPLManual
@FPLReaction
@ciarannn__
@FPL_Consult
@FPLhasten
@FPL_Olly
@sami_zeghdoud
@FPL_Joao