Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️90%-120% FASTER—New model on the new #BA2 subvariant shows a ⬆️90% competitive growth advantage over vanilla BA1 #Omicron in Denmark🇩🇰. Worse, modeling in England🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 shows ⬆️~120% faster BA2 advantage over BA1. 🧵

HT @JPWeiland (who correctly said Omicron was 5-6x Delta before)

2) #BA2 is now over 50% in Denmark! It only took 1 month to overtake the already super contagious original BA1 #Omicron.

3) in the Netherlands 🇳🇱, #BA2 is also surging and displacing the old BA1 #Omicron.

4) In Germany 🇩🇪 too— #BA2 is surging exponentially as well.

5) interestingly, BA2 once popped up months ago briefly in Denmark but then was displaced by Delta last summer. Somehow it’s back - perhaps it is more evasive but slower— but now evasive variant is more competitive? Unclear.

6) I’ve been growing concerned about #BA2 for a while. Denmark ministry of health (SSI) also put out a warning last week it could be more transmissible.

7) the #BA2 is also harder to find and decipher from other #Omicron because the shortcut SGTF signal of the BA2 isn’t there, while it is for Omicron BA1.

8) Crap, the downplaying of BA2 has begun just like before. All while ignoring Danish data that shows 65% #BA2 dominance!

9) Virus researcher & chief physician of Danish public health authority @SSI_dk says you can get infected with #BA2 subvariant of #Omicron after being infected with Omicron BA.1. ➡️ This is why we shouldn’t risk COVID or chase mass infection. nyheder.tv2.dk/2022-01-21-ny-…

10) 1.5x faster — Denmark’s CDC says BA2 subvariant of #Omicron is about ~1.5 times more contagious than BA1 (original Omicron). This makes it much higher than prior estimates and could “extend” the Omicron wave into February, says 🇩🇰 officials. ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/…