Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Feb 01 to Feb 07 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Improving, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.72);FL=0.81;/SP=0.86;[IT=0.88];
- Plateau, [low] high (alarming) mort: [ICL;CH];UK=0.95;LUX;FR;(GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort:PT;DK=1.07;SE;BE;AT;
. Med-low mort:NO;NL;DE.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.07; Croat=1.05; [Czech=1.27; Eston=1.25; Hung=1.15; Latv=1.26;Lith=1.22; Pol=1.27; Romn=1.28; Russia=1.38;Serb=1.06; Slovk=1.40; Slovn=1.22;Ukr=1.33].

4/9 - Africa -
Four #COVID19 profiles:
- Surging in Libya (R-eff=1.39);
- Rising in Tunisia=1.12, high mortality;
- Plateauing in Botswana=1.02; [South Africa=0.95], with low [high] mortality.
- Improving in Morocco.

5/9 - Middle-East
Three profiles in #COVID19 cases, :
- Landing in:
Qatar; Saudi-Arabia;UAE;
- Reaching its peak in Israel=1.04 (78.5% received 1 dose); very high mortality;
- Deteriorating in:
Iran (R-eff=1.45); Iraq=1.18; ; Jordan=1.30; Kuwait=1.1; Lebanon=1.11; Oman=1.23.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Rising in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Malaysia (R-eff=1.17); with low mortality.
- Plateauing in Thailand=1.04; [Vietnam=0.97], with low [medium] mortality;
- (Slow) landing in (Kazakhstan=0.92); Mongolia; Philippines; Laos, with low [medium] mortality.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Rapid/worrying surge in #COVID19 epid activ, very low mortality:
Japan (R-eff=1.31); South Korea=1.38; Pakistan=1.16;
- Peak reached in India=0.94; Nepal=0.93;
- Landing in Australia, with high mortality;
- Safe in: NZ=1.36; China=1.10;Taiwan=1.04.

8/9 - North America -
- Canada (R-eff=0.93) is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, very high mort., 86.5% 1 dose. Red (R-eff>0.90) in Saskatchewan, NWT, Nun, NS PEI, orange elswhere.
- USA=0.78 (75.9%) are landing, very high mortality, red in 13 states, orange in 37.

9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epidemic activity, [very] high mort.
Three profiles:
- Surging-rising: Brazil (R-eff=1.19); Chile=1.33; [Peru=1.13];
- Plateauing: Cuba=0.96; Mexico=0.97;[Uruguay=0.99]
- Landing: [Argentina; Bolivia; Colombia].

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0