Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Feb 02 to Feb 08 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.75)/SP;FL;[IT];
- Plateau, [low/med] high (alarming) mort: [ICL/CH];UK=0.98;LUX;FR;(GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort:PT;DK=1.08;SE;BE;AT;
. Med-low mort:NO;NL;DE.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.03; Croat=1.01; [Czech=1.15; Eston=1.25; Hung=1.13; Latv=1.27;Lith=1.21; Pol=1.26; Romn=1.28; Russia=1.36;Serb=1.05; Slovk=1.39; Slovn=1.21;Ukr=1.32].

4/9 - Africa -
Four #COVID19 profiles:
- Surging in Libya (R-eff=1.41);
- Rising in Tunisia=1.12, high mortality;
- Plateauing in Botswana=1.02; [South Africa=0.94], with low [high] mortality.
- Improving in Morocco.

5/9 - Middle-East
Three profiles in #COVID19 cases, :
- Landing in:
Qatar; Saudi-Arabia;UAE;
- Reaching its peak in Israel (R-eff=1.02) (78.5% received 1 dose); very high mortality;
- Deteriorating in:
Iran=1.47; Iraq=1.18; ; Jordan=1.29; Kuwait=1.1; Lebanon=1.08; Oman=1.22.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Rising in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Malaysia (R-eff=1.15); with low mortality.
- Plateauing in Thailand=1.05; [Vietnam=0.95], with low [medium] mortality;
- Landing in Kazakhstan; Mongolia; Philippines; Laos, with low [medium] mortality.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Rapid/worrying surge in #COVID19 epid activ, very low mortality:
NZ (R-eff=1.35);Japan=1.30; South Korea=1.35; Pakistan=1.16;
- Peak reached in India=0.93; Nepal=0.83;
- Landing in Australia, with high mortality;
- Safe in: China=1.11;Taiwan=1.04.

8/9 - North America -
- Canada (R-eff=0.79) is landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, high mortality, 86.7% 1 dose. Red (R-eff>0.90) in Saskatchewan, NWT, Nun, PEI, orange elswhere.
- USA=0.77 (75.9%) are landing, very high mortality, red in 11 states, orange in 39.

9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epidemic activity, [very] high mort.
Three profiles:
- Surging-rising: Brazil (R-eff=1.17); Chile=1.30; ;
- Plateauing: Mexico=1.01; [Peru=0.94;Uruguay=0.99]
- Landing: [Argentina; Bolivia; Colombia; Cuba].

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0