Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Feb 03 to Feb 09 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, [very] high mortality: [IT (R-eff=0.83)];IRL;SP;FL;FR;
- Plateau, [low/med] high (very high/alarming) mort: [ICL/CH;BE];LUX;(UK=0.97;PT/GR);
- Deteriorating:
. [Very] high mort: [SE];DK=1.08;AT;
. Med-low mort: NO;NL;DE.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Surge or rise in #COVID19 cases, high mortality:
Czech=1.27; Eston=1.21; Hung=1.11; Latv=1.24;Lith=1.21; Pol=1.19; Romn=1.26; Russia=1.36;Slovk=1.36; Slovn=1.19;Ukr=1.3;
- Reaching their peak, alarming mortality: Bulg=1.03; Croat=0.98; Serb=1.03.

4/9 - Africa -
Four #COVID19 profiles:
- Surging in Libya (R-eff=1.40), medium mortality;
- Rising in Tunisia=1.12, high mortality;
- Plateauing in Botswana=1.03; [South Africa=0.96], with low [high] mortality.

5/9 - Middle-East
Two profiles:
- [Slowly] landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones in: [Israel (R-eff=0.92), alarming mortality, 78.6% received 1 dose]; Qatar; Saudi-Arabia;UAE; low mort.
- Surge or rise:
Iran=1.46; Iraq=1.17; Jordan=1.28; Kuwait=1.1; Lebanon=1.09; Oman=1.22.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Rising in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Malaysia (R-eff=1.17); with low mortality.
- Plateauing in Thailand=1.05, with low [medium] mortality;
- Landing in Mongolia; Philippines; Laos; [Kazakhstan; Vietnam=0.92], with low [medium] mortality.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 epid activ, very low mortality:
New Zealand (R-eff=1.35); Japan=1.26; South Korea=1.34;
- Peak in Pakistan=1.04;
- Landing in India; Nepal; Australia, with [low] high mortality;
- Safe in: China=1.1;Taiwan=1.01.

8/9 - North America -
- Canada (R-eff=0.87) is landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, high mortality, 86.7% 1 dose. Red (R-eff>0.90) in NWT, Nun, NS, PEI, orange elswhere.
- USA=0.73 (75.9%) are landing, very high mortality, red in 6 states, orange in 44.

9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epidemic activity, [very] high mort.
Three profiles:
- Surging-rising: Brazil (R-eff=1.14); Chile=1.28;
- Plateauing: [Uruguay=0.97];
- (Slowly) landing: (Mexico=0.93); Bolivia; Cuba; [Argentina; Colombia; Peru].

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0