Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/5 - France (R-eff=0.82) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with high mortality.
156,639 cases and 305 deaths/day by Feb 11, if at same pace.
80.3% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 05 to Feb 08:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascienced

2/5 - Eleven mainland Régions reached their peak or are landing to their #COVID19 safe zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.84);
Brg-Frche-C=0.94;
Ctre-Val-L=0.94;
[Corse=0.96];
[Grd-Est=0.98]:
Hts-de-Fr=0.94;
Ile-de-Fr=0.76;
Norm=0.96;
Occit=0.95
P-de-L=0.99;
[PACA=0.88].

3/5 - Bretagne (R-eff=1.03) is close to reaching its #COVID19 safety zone, with increasing high mortality.

4/5 - Nouvelle-Aquitaine (R-eff=1.08) is the only remaing mainland Région of France which is still increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with increasing high mortality.

5/5 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Peak is reached in La Réunion (R-eff=0.99), very high mortality;
- [Slowly] landing in [Martinique=0.93]; Guadeloupe=0.70; Guyane=0.62, with [high] very high mortality;
Safe in Mayotte=0.29, medium mort.

6/5 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

7/5 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0