Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Feb 06 to Feb 12 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, [very] high mortality: [IT (R-eff=0.79);SE];LUX;IRL;SP;FR;
- Plateauing, [low/med] high (very high) mort: [NO;ICL/CH];UK=0.99;DK=1.02;FL;BE;(PT;GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort: AT=1.11;
. Med-low mort: NL=1.09;DE=1.14.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Rise or surge in #COVID19 cases, [very] high mortality:
Czech=1.1; Eston=1.16;Russia=1.33;Slovk=1.28;Ukr=1.24 [Hung=1.07; Latv=1.19;Lith=1.19; Pol=1.06; Romn=1.14; Slovn=1.1];
- [Slowly] landing, alarming mortality:
[Bulg=0.92;Serb=0.96] Croat=0.88.

4/9 - Africa -
Two identified #COVID19 profiles, but underreporting in many areas:
- Surging in Libya (R-eff=1.35), medium mortality;
- Landing in [Tunisia=0.83] while plateauing in Botswana=0.97, with low [very high] mortality.

5/9 - Middle-East
Two profiles:
- Surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity:
Iran (R-eff=1.50); Jordan=1.28; Oman=1.18;
- Plateauing: Iraq=1.03; Kuwait=1.06;Lebanon=1.06;
- Landing:
Israel, with alarming mortality, 78.5% >1 dose; and Qatar; Saudi-Arabia; UAE, with low mortality.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Rise or surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Malaysia (R-eff=1.17); Indonesia=1.48, with very low mortality.
- Increase in Thailand=1.09, with very low mortality;
- Landing in Mongolia; Laos; [Kazakhstan]; Vietnam, with low [medium] mortality.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 epid activ, very low mortality:
New Zealand (R-eff=1.36); Japan=1.20; South Korea=1.34;
- Peaking in Pakistan=0.97;
- Landing in [India]; Nepal; Australia, with [med] high mort;
- Safe in: China=1.20;Taiwan=1.0.

8/9 - North America -
- Canada (R-eff=0.87) is landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, high mortality, 86.5% 1 dose. Red (R-eff>0.90) in NWT, Nun, NS, PEI, orange elswhere.
- USA=0.67 (76.2%) are landing, very high mortality. All states orange, but orange in Maine, Miss., Tenn.

9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epidemic activity, [very] high mort.
Three profiles:
- Increase/surge: Brazil (R-eff=1.06)/Chile=1.24;
- Plateauing: Mexico=1.02; [Uruguay=0.95];
- Landing: Bolivia; Cuba; [Argentina; Colombia; Peru].

10/9 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0