Thread by @therealarod1984

2/10 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

For the next couple of weeks will step up to 2X a week analysis of of C19:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

Mostly because I'm interested in what the final numbers look like for Omicron. Lucky you, LOL!

1/n

2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* This first one and the CFR Chart are the pictures of Omicron.
* A rapid rise and fall
* Cases 280% higher than the previous C19 record, but hospitalizations lower than previous waves, especially the critical care hospitalizations.

2/n

2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* Omicron was more gentle while blowing up the Mandate paradigm
* C19 ICU peaked at 72% of the previous record, Vents at 52%
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/4, projected thru 1/18

3/n

2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Pg 4

* Fatalities / Hosp Census
* Jan 5-18 = projections to dates that already are 80-95% reported
* Jan 19-on = TBD. Jan 19-26 is hospital peak, fatality picture will become clear next 10 days
* Like ICU/Vents, should be lower than previous waves

4/n

2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5

* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc

5/n

2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6

* CFR on a date in this chart is determined by dividing the subsequent 7 days 7DMA of fatalities over the previous 7 days 7DMA of cases
* CFR line here is very accurate through Jan 12, as fatalities are 90-95%+ reported through that date

6/n

2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7

* CFR @ still running at 0.4% 1 week out from start of hospitalization peak. Less than seasonal flu.
* Interesting to see if and when CFR rises back above 1%
* highest CFR %s at the lowest case numbers over the last 2 years #wierdbutnot

7/n

2/6 TX Severe Conclusion

I'll do Severe analysis 2X /week for a couple of weeks before wrapping it up.

Omicron was endemic. We knew 18 months ago Covid would go endemic. Appreciate that it blew up Mandate Theater & hope Covid continues on this road to common cold status.

8/end

Oops that last tweet should have read 2/10. Doh!