therealarod1984 Profile picture
Feb 11, 2022 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
2/10 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

For the next couple of weeks will step up to 2X a week analysis of of C19:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

Mostly because I'm interested in what the final numbers look like for Omicron. Lucky you, LOL!

1/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* This first one and the CFR Chart are the pictures of Omicron.
* A rapid rise and fall
* Cases 280% higher than the previous C19 record, but hospitalizations lower than previous waves, especially the critical care hospitalizations.

2/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* Omicron was more gentle while blowing up the Mandate paradigm
* C19 ICU peaked at 72% of the previous record, Vents at 52%
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/4, projected thru 1/18

3/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Pg 4

* Fatalities / Hosp Census
* Jan 5-18 = projections to dates that already are 80-95% reported
* Jan 19-on = TBD. Jan 19-26 is hospital peak, fatality picture will become clear next 10 days
* Like ICU/Vents, should be lower than previous waves

4/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5

* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc

5/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6

* CFR on a date in this chart is determined by dividing the subsequent 7 days 7DMA of fatalities over the previous 7 days 7DMA of cases
* CFR line here is very accurate through Jan 12, as fatalities are 90-95%+ reported through that date

6/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7

* CFR @ still running at 0.4% 1 week out from start of hospitalization peak. Less than seasonal flu.
* Interesting to see if and when CFR rises back above 1%
* highest CFR %s at the lowest case numbers over the last 2 years #wierdbutnot

7/n
2/6 TX Severe Conclusion

I'll do Severe analysis 2X /week for a couple of weeks before wrapping it up.

Omicron was endemic. We knew 18 months ago Covid would go endemic. Appreciate that it blew up Mandate Theater & hope Covid continues on this road to common cold status.

8/end
Oops that last tweet should have read 2/10. Doh!

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More from @therealarod1984

Oct 22
Battleground states - 2024 President
10/22/2024 Summary

1/n

* Summarizes the analysis I've done on all 7 states
* Spread & Movement is based on last 10 polls in each state
* Trump has a clear lead in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
* Movement is to Trump in 5 of 7 battlegrounds

1/n Image
Battleground state summary - Page 2

2/n

Comparing polls on Oct 22 of both 2016 & 2020 with their final results:

* Trump's Oct 22, 2016 polling underestimated him by an average of 5.7 points
* Trump's Oct 22, 2020 polling underestimated him by an average of 3.1 points

2/n Image
Battleground state summary - Page 2

* Avg movement 2016+2020 - Trump +4.4
* If I do regression, 2016 --> 2020 --> 2024 (polls getting better at capturing Trump Vote), I can project 2024 movement of Trump +1.9
* Regression projects Trump wins all 7 by 2.0 to 3.5 points

3/end Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 22, 2022
"Random Dude on Twitter" is my second nickname. "Random Dude on Twitter" has been right A LOT. Let's look at some receipts, shall we?

THREAD

1/n
Let's see...."Random Dude on Twitter" predicted Texas Hospitalization peak to the day not just once....

2/n

....but TWICE. In fact, this first time I did it, I called myself "Random Dude on Twitter."

3/n

Read 8 tweets
Nov 21, 2022
11/21 - Domestic Passenger Traffic: Pre-Thanksgiving Edition

* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday

THREAD

1/n
11/21 Airlines Page 2

* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%

2/n Image
11/21 Airlines Page 3

* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically

3/n ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
May 17, 2022
5/16 - Texas C19: Omicron BA.Whatever

THREAD:

* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low

1/n
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.

As of 5/6:

* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.

2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases

* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising

3/n
Read 6 tweets
May 11, 2022
5/11 Domestic Airline Travel Update:

* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there

THREAD

1/n
5/11 Airlines Page 2

The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.

Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.

2/n ImageImage
5/11 Airlines Page 3

Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.

The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.

3/n ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Apr 11, 2022
4/10 - Texas C19 Update: Still nothing

THREAD:

* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain

Let's go through it!

1/n
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.

* 2 tweets on testing today

As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...

2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2

* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.

3/n
Read 10 tweets

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